Baron - Mr Red offers a critical analysis of a recent vintage Rolex auction in Geneva, challenging the prevailing narrative of ever-increasing prices. He delves into the nuances of market performance, highlighting instances where expectations were unmet and quality played a decisive role. This post provides valuable insights for collectors navigating the dynamic vintage Rolex market.
Lot XXX - Not for Sale
PuristS has a policy of not talking about the price of watches. For example, its not forum policy to discuss the attraction (or not) of a watch that is about to be auctioned. On the other hand, discussing an auction after the event seems fair game to me.
For the last several years, we have seen auction after auction where prices generally grinded (often shooting) higher. Big crowns, Paul Newmans, GMTs.....it hasn't happened across all references, but quite a few of the vintage Rolex spectrum have seen nothing short of spectacular increases. Many, on this forum, have declared vintage Rolex to have assumed the role of "King", succeeding Patek. I remain a sceptic there.
Well, yesterday's auction in Geneva proved to be a fairly big disappointment. Moonphases seemed to be more in vogue, though not overwhelmingly. There were a number of Paul Newmans and to be honest, the quality of the range varied from 60% up to 90%+. Prices varied accordingly. I thought the days of picking up a Paul Newman for $70k had long gone. Seemingly not. Yet, on the other hand, another Paul Newman that came with an enormous degree of controversy scored a hammer price of $400k. Having said that, this was well shy of expectations that saw some anticipating the $1m mark being broken. Big crowns frequently failed to reach reserve prices and failed to sell. Good quality Comex or Comex with some twist generally beat estimates, but only the generally low estimates by Christies.....results were soft in comparison with recent auctions. A 1675 GMT was a stand-out winner...coming in at 6-times the estimate.......a cool $200k. But then I guess it helps when the watch in question has a blue bezel and was made specifically for his Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, carrying the crest of the UAE Ministry of Defence. Another GMT 1675 for his Highness scored $90k compared with estimates of $30k.
Yes, there were some winners. Some clear losers and a large amount that came within very conservative estimates that were way down on previous auctions.
What do I make of it?
Well, if I am honest, and I do recognise that one person's view is (especially in vintage Rolex world) NOT an authority......but my general impression is that the overall quality of the watches was on the low side. In the Geneva auction earlier in the year, there were some true killer watches for sale....some really big stars. I am not sure that can be said for November's auction. Yes, of course, there were some star watches, but to really get a buzz, I think you need 10 or so "buzz" watches. This auction failed to deliver on that score. So many collectors were not playing at this auction. Dealers are constantly looking for quality stock to sell and basically are having trouble finding enough. The result is that the auctions start to dredge, and the auction results reflect that.
Yes, yesterday's auction was a disappointment for most. It failed to provide the excitement or indeed the novelty of recent auctions. $1/2m Daytonas with Omani dials were not evident yesterday. Ironically, the star of the show was a GMT 1675...I think that says it all.
Has Rolex lost the vintage shine?
No, because the reason for yesterday's humdrum results was primarily a lack of quality vintage pieces for sale. A lack of supply is rarely a sign of a bubbled market. I think yesterday's poor auction is a harbinger of what will likely be another surge in prices. Basically, collectors who have quality vintage Rolex are just not being enticed into selling at current market prices. To entice, prices seemingly need to rise more.
For me, it is a lose:lose scenario. I did not even bid in yesterday's auction as could see nothing I wanted for my collection. The highlight of my day was winning a betting pool guessing the price of the controversial Paul Newman. I guessed CHF 390k hammer. It came in at CHF 380k. I win 5 Nato Straps....yeah, that actually got me excited! When quality of stock drops, I lose as I don't get a chance to pick up watches I would like to own. Yet, I also lose insofar as if prices need to rise to entice interesting watches into the market, I have to pay a lot more. Lose.
Yep.....collecting vintage Rolex is a painful game for sure.
This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:10:37 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-11 06:14:32 This message has been edited by Baron on 2014-11-12 06:13:27
About the Rolex Submariner Ref. 5513
The Rolex Submariner reference 5513 is a notable example within the Submariner line, distinguished by its two-line dial and lack of a date complication. Produced for an extended period, it represents a core offering for collectors seeking a straightforward and robust tool watch. Its design emphasizes legibility and functionality, aligning with the original purpose of the Submariner series. This reference is recognized for its consistent aesthetic throughout its production run, with subtle variations in dial text and bezel inserts.
The watch features a 40mm stainless steel Oyster case, offering durability and water resistance suitable for its intended use. Powering the reference 5513 is the automatic Caliber 1520 movement, known for its reliability. The crystal is acrylic, contributing to the vintage character of the watch. The unidirectional rotating bezel, typically with an aluminum insert, allows for elapsed time measurement.
For collectors, the reference 5513 is a significant model due to its long production history and the various dial iterations, such as gilt and matte dials, which present distinct collecting opportunities. Its appeal lies in its foundational design and its position as a non-date Submariner, making it a desirable piece for those who appreciate the model's original form. The watch is often paired with an Oyster bracelet, completing its functional aesthetic.
Specifications
Caliber
Cal.1520
Case
Stainless steel
Diameter
40mm
Dial
Black gilt
Water Resist.
200m
Crystal
Acrylic
About the Rolex GMT Ref. 1675
The GMT-Master reference 1675 is a significant model in the brand's history, representing an evolution from earlier GMT-Master references. It was produced for an extended period, allowing for numerous dial, bezel, and hand variations throughout its production run. This reference is notable for its introduction of crown guards, enhancing the watch's robustness and contributing to its distinct profile. It solidified the GMT-Master's design language, which would influence subsequent generations.
This reference features a 40mm case, available in stainless steel, yellow gold, or a two-tone combination of steel and yellow gold. It is powered by the automatic Caliber 1575, a chronometer-certified movement known for its reliability and a power reserve of approximately 42 hours. The watch is fitted with an acrylic crystal and offers a water resistance of 50 meters, suitable for everyday wear. The bidirectional rotating bezel, typically with an aluminum insert, displays a 24-hour scale.
For collectors, the 1675 is highly sought after due to its long production period and the resulting variety of configurations, including different dial types (gilt, matte), hand styles, and bezel colors (Pepsi, all-red, all-black). Its four-digit reference number and acrylic crystal are key characteristics that define it as a vintage Rolex. The reference appeals to those interested in the historical development of the GMT-Master line and the nuances of vintage watch collecting.
Specifications
Caliber
Cal. 1575
Case
Yellow Gold
Diameter
40mm
Dial
Black
Water Resist.
50m
Crystal
Acrylic
About the Rolex Rolex Submariner Date Ref. 1680
The Rolex Submariner reference 1680 is notable as the first Submariner model to feature a date complication, marking a significant evolution for the line. Introduced in the late 1960s, it bridged the gap between the earlier no-date Submariners and later iterations, offering enhanced functionality while retaining the robust characteristics of the professional tool watch. This reference is distinguished by its single cyclops date magnifier on the crystal, a feature that would become a hallmark of many subsequent Rolex models.
This reference typically features a 40mm steel case, housing the self-winding Caliber 1575 movement. The movement provides a power reserve of approximately 48 hours. The crystal is acrylic, commonly referred to as Plexiglas, contributing to its vintage aesthetic. Water resistance for the 1680 is rated at 200 meters, consistent with its design as a reliable underwater instrument.
For collectors, the reference 1680 is highly sought after, particularly early examples with "Red Submariner" dials where the word "Submariner" is printed in red. These variants represent a distinct period in Rolex's production history and are prized for their rarity and aesthetic appeal. The 1680 appeals to those who appreciate the blend of historical significance, functional design, and the tangible qualities of vintage Rolex manufacturing.
Specifications
Caliber
Cal.1575
Case
steel
Diameter
40mm
Dial
black
Water Resist.
200m
Crystal
Acrylic (Plexiglas)
About the Rolex Ref. 5514
The Rolex Submariner reference 5514 is a specialized variant of the Submariner line, produced exclusively for COMEX (Compagnie Maritime d'Expertises), a French industrial deep-sea diving company. This reference is distinguished by its unique helium escape valve, integrated into the left side of the case, a feature not found on standard Submariner models of its era. It represents a purpose-built tool watch designed for professional saturation divers, setting it apart from other Submariner references intended for broader commercial release. Its limited production and specific client make it a notable piece within the brand's history of professional watches.
The case of the reference 5514 is crafted from stainless steel, typically measuring 40mm in diameter. It houses an automatic movement, likely the Rolex Caliber 1520 or 1530, known for its robustness and reliability. The watch is fitted with a Plexiglas crystal, consistent with Rolex sports models from the mid-20th century, providing durability and ease of maintenance in demanding environments. The helium escape valve is a key technical modification, allowing accumulated helium to escape during decompression without damaging the watch crystal.
This reference appeals to collectors interested in specialized Rolex tool watches and those with a focus on professional diving equipment. Its association with COMEX and the presence of the helium escape valve make it a distinct and highly sought-after model. Variants often include dials with the COMEX logo, further emphasizing its unique provenance. The 5514 occupies a specific niche, representing a period when Rolex collaborated directly with professional organizations to develop watches tailored for extreme conditions.
Specifications
Caliber
1520/1530
Case
Stainless Steel
Diameter
40mm
Dial
Black
Water Resist.
200m
Crystal
Plexiglass
About the Rolex 16660 Ref. 16660
The Rolex Sea-Dweller reference 16660, often referred to as the "Triple Six," represents a significant transitional model within the Sea-Dweller lineage. It was the first Sea-Dweller to incorporate a sapphire crystal, a crucial upgrade that enhanced its pressure resistance and durability compared to its plexiglass predecessors. This reference also marked the introduction of a larger helium escape valve, further solidifying its professional dive watch credentials and distinguishing it from earlier iterations. It bridges the gap between the vintage four-digit references and the more modern five-digit models.
This reference features a 40 mm stainless steel Oyster case, designed for extreme depths. It is powered by the automatic Caliber 3035, a robust movement known for its reliability and quick-set date function. The watch is equipped with a sapphire crystal, contributing to its impressive water resistance of 1220 meters (4000 feet). The unidirectional rotating bezel allows for precise timing of immersion, and the Oyster bracelet ensures secure wear during demanding activities.
For collectors, the 16660 is notable for its transitional characteristics, offering both vintage appeal with its matte dial variants in early production and the enhanced technical specifications of later models. It appeals to those seeking a robust tool watch with historical significance, representing a key evolutionary step in Rolex's professional dive watch development. The reference is recognized for its engineering advancements and its role in the continuous refinement of the Sea-Dweller series.
Specifications
Caliber
Cal. 3035
Case
Stainless steel
Diameter
40 mm
Dial
Black
Water Resist.
1220m (4000ft)
Crystal
Sapphire crystal
Key Points from the Discussion
The auction's disappointing results were attributed to a lack of overall quality in the lots and a perceived void in Rolex leadership at Christie's after Aurel Bacs' departure, impacting the curation of top-tier watches.
There might be a 'critical mass' effect where a sufficient number of top lots in an auction can drive prices upwards for other pieces, and conversely, a lack thereof can lead to softer results.
Quality will ultimately prevail over rarity in the vintage market; when both quality and rarity align, watches tend to achieve higher values and bring greater satisfaction to collectors.
The market for quality vintage pieces remains strong, but demand for lower-quality items is significantly weaker, with many lots failing to attract telephone bidders.
The final value of a vintage watch depends not only on quality but also on originality, with examples of fake dials appearing in auctions and selling for much lower prices.
The demand for vintage watches is always present when the 'ingredients' of supply and quality are right, and external factors like dealer tweets can also influence buyer sentiment.
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The Discussion
NI
nikolaj
Nov 11, 2014
I had been wondering about the seemingly conservative estimates and followed some of the auction from the side line. I am in no way qualified to judge the quality of the lots solely from the "mug shots" provided in the catalogue, and the condition reports often leave a lot to desire, so I have been waiting for expert opinions like yours (even if you are stating as an individual, yours is always an expert opinion to me!). Your views are interesting. I am intrigued if there is such a thing as a cr
BA
Baron - Mr Red
Nov 11, 2014
I think the price for quality vintage is extremely strong, but the price for lower quality is not being driven by the same demand. Look at yesterday's auction....for many lots, there were NO telephone bidders at all. Demand for mediocre pieces was very low. My view on vintage is that regardless of the rarity of a reference, always try to get the highest quality of that reference as possible. My 16660 is not a rare reference at all. But it took me 2 years to find the right one....so I guess what
AM
amanico
Nov 11, 2014
High or down, that doesn't mean a lot.... It dรฉpends on many factors... Bidders, quality of the watches, history sometimes, well.... If you see a DRSD MK II PP Brown dial for 10 K Euros, I am in! :) :) :) All the best, my friend. Nicolas
BA
Baron - Mr Red
Nov 11, 2014
......from 30 quadrillion down to just 100 billion.....
LE
Le Monde Edmond
Nov 11, 2014
Joe- well written. I was in the auction room and despite the auctioneer being quite capably, the auction seemed to 'drag' on. I think the biggest problem was twofold: 1) The quality was just not there. 2) I also think that lack of Rolex leadership at Christies is a problem We all know that under Aurel Bacs- quality was paramount. However Aurel also left at a time when finding watches was starting to become a real problem. It is not even Christies fault- I think it is the nature of the market, to
LE
Le Monde Edmond
Nov 11, 2014
It is just the lots were not inspiring. Mediocre watches (quality) fetch mediocre prices. Quite simple. best Edmond
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