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Horological Meandering

I agree 100% and ...

 
 By: nilomis : January 15th, 2012-14:24
Magnus,

A large portion of the current lack of soul is a simple consequence of the lack of watch education of the newcomers (or new money).

If you look on the advertising material of the past, they had, give or take, an educational content. They used to explain what was the meaning of many things (water proof, shock proof, chronometer etc.)

Today the material, from the same companies, push only on the sexy side of the equation or, worst, on those "ambassadors", on a very similar way that they used to sell ... cigarettes on the past.

The sad portion of this is that, IMHO, today's watches are much better made, uses better materials and carries more quality than ever (statistically speaking).

Cheers,

Nilo


I wonder

 
 By: Roger Kint : January 15th, 2012-16:25
The prices do seem more inflated as I have walked through ADs over the years.  At the same time, I have spent less time in ADs over the years because most of the watches do seem so similar with one brand or product line blending into another.  However, I agree that the finishings and technical quality of watches have generally increased in the past 10 years.  Also, I often find the new complications or sub-models trotted out at every SIHH very forced and just a way of pushing sales.  Of course, this has been going on for longer than 10 years and is not limited to the watch industry.  Indeed, I think they teach this at every business school.

I do find myself turning to the internet more often over time although this carries significant risk and you have to absolutely make sure you know what you are doing.  And over the years, I have found better and better bargins online (even after taking price inflation into account), especially with gently used, moderately complicated, precious metal watches from famous makers.  I believe that this is actually the result of so many watches being sold these days to the newly rich in the developing parts of the world.  By the way, I do not feel there is anything wrong about this.  Newly rich people in Western Europe and America have done the same thing forever.  However, just like people used to melt down their silverware 300 years ago when times got tough, people (no matter where they live) often sell off their watches first (often at a severe discount) when they go through tough economic times.  This helps the serious collectors who are patient and do not need to buy something "brand new."

Most of the serious collectors I know rarely, if ever, go to ADs anymore.  To anyone who is willing to deal with a few scratches that can be polished off at the next service, there are incredible deals to be had on the internet.  What will actually happen to watchmakers over time, I am less sure.  There could come a time when the MSRPs are no longer sustainable, the buying public will no longer stomach the price increases for minor variations and the business models based on them will force some watchmakers to go out of business.  Again, I do not think the associated drop in prices as the bubble bursts will affect the serious collectors as much; most do not pay anywhere near MSRP and most collect watches for personal pleasure for the long term.

This message has been edited by Roger Kint on 2012-01-15 16:34:22

Sounds like you and I need to have another lunch, Steve! [nt]

 
 By: CaliforniaJed : January 15th, 2012-17:13
No message body

thank you

 
 By: optionc : January 15th, 2012-22:15

Steve,

Thanks for your thoughtful post. I agree w/ much of your commentary around the price increases that seem to outpace reason... but not demand. Short-sightedness by an industry that has reset it sights on 'new markets'.  And an explosion of brands and models that defy mathematics.  Still, it seems that each year brings another record sales figure, demand that outstrips supply, and the desire for profit that seems to necessitate exclusion of passionate watch people in exchange for speculators or on a positive note... new watch fanatics. 

So it is like many other markets where new entrants (both buyers & suppliers) disrupt a once somewhat sleepy industry... the same could have been said about wine where the demand for 1st growths or top burgundies will never be satiated by limited supply but new world wines fill in the gaps.  My feeling is similar to yours in that I've largely lost the 'fire' and have turned my attention to other pursuits.  Still, I'll check out SIHH's new models but it would take something monumental, rationally priced, and available w/o chasing for me to buy something new.   But in the end, I hope sanity prevails and these micro-machnes we call watches come back to reality.

OpC

"Felt" consent

 
 By: anaesdoc : January 16th, 2012-03:19
Dear Steve,

I am no expert in the watch business nor in watch making, just a dedicated amateur attracted by these lovely little wrist marvels. I do not possess high-end watches like some of the folks around here, just plain, simple timepieces. So I cannot judge your statement on a rational basis, but my "tummy" tells me you hit some real issues.

1. Prices: really exploding (even in the medium range sector like Omega, Rolex, Sinn, Stowa), but - hey - they can charge you only as much as the customers are willing to pay. Obviously there are enough customers who (still?) can and will!

2. Sales channels: I only bought a VC at an AD with a very moderate courtesy once and lost a lot of money when selling the immaculate watch 3 years later. I will not do that again. So-called grey market dealers offer the same watches for better prices or a second-hand watch is an alternative.

3. "Soul": hard to grip intellectualy, isn´t it? So here I feel a bit more comfortable with my feelings smile. I am a fan of vintage Omegas which I simply prefer a lot to the contemporary ones: too big, too bulky, too impersonal, too expensive. The old ones are more decent, classic and my watchmaker tells me the movements´ quality of the 1950-1960s does not have to hide from modern Omega movements. Whatever co-axial escapement, silicium hairspring, column wheel control etc. may mean as a technical improvement, my vintage Seamaster with manual wind runs +10 secs a day and costed me only a fraction of these high-tech watches. The unobtrusiveness of these ancient watches is a main attribute that a lot of the current models seem to fear. They are crying for superlatives, records, first-in-history achievements which result in an "it-was-done-because-it-has-not-been-done-before attitude". Some things have never been done before - and nobody will ever miss them smile!

One thing stroke me when reading the comments to your post: those who obviously feed the boom - the Chinese, Indians, Arabs, Russians or whoever does not care about spending huge sums - do not seem to linger about this site, most people are from the traditional (and uninteresting?) old world, i.e. America, Western Europe. So probably we are discussing the topic, but it does not really matter in sales figures for the brands?

Kind regards and thanks for bringing up your points!

anaesdoc

Fantastic reading.

 
 By: VMM : January 17th, 2012-04:46

I'm IN the watch industry, for five years now, and I have to agree with many of your comments and words.

 

This post gives me wings (even more) to go ahead with a new project I have had in mind for a very long time, thanks.

 

Best.

 

 

Vte smile

Same feeling with you

 
 By: Albert.J : January 17th, 2012-11:53

 

This message has been edited by Albert.J on 2012-01-17 11:58:39

My thoughts on price

 
 By: Albert.J : January 17th, 2012-12:11
i was very surprised at the price when i was new to watches.

what made me more surprised than the retail price was the rate of inflation and the period of inflation.

 

some of my favourite brands (im not sure about all other brands) has been raising the price 2~3times a year.

so as a result, an annual inflation rate of 5~20% for each models(at least in my country)

 

 

so what will be the price after 10 years?

maybe almost 5 to 10 times as expensive as Patek perpetual chrono as mentioned above(from $35,000 to $135,000)

it would have been possible to purchase a $35,000 watch 10 years ago.

but now it is almost as impossible to purchase $135,000 watch.

 

i think... something is wrong

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