Patek Philippe Sealed Watches: Market Risks

We have debated at some length whether it is right or wrong for the sealed plastic and carriage packaging to be officially removed by an Authorised Dealer before a client takes delivery of a watch. There is no question that auction prices for unopened plastic currently receive a premium compared with watches that have been opened and worn. This article will present two arguments to suggest that this may be about to change. Maybe, plastic-sealed watches will pose new risks going forward.


Patek Philippe's actions to ensure that all future watches have their plastic removed is an attempt by the manufacturer to prevent grey market dealers and speculating clients obtaining watches for the act of speculation. If you buy a watch in its sealed plastic and never remove it from that plastic, then it would tend to follow that you never really had much intention of wearing the watch. Rather, the intention was likely to be to take advantage of the price appreciation that certain Patek Philippe watches attract right from new. That is pure speculation and really doesn't have much to do with watch collecting passion. The differentiation of identical references purely through some unopened plastic is clearly something that the manufacturer seems intent on changing. To be honest, I have owned many Patek Philippe watches that arrived with me in plastic. The plastic never lasts more than a minute. When I take a decision to buy a new watch, I do so after a lot of consideration and so I have no need to debate what to do when the watch arrives....I open it and I wear it. For those that use the sealed package as a form of speculation, it seems that those days may be numbered.


Given that Patek Philippe will drive the AD network into opening every watch, then if a watch remains in its plastic is it correct to assume that it would demand an even bigger premium at auction? Ares501 Mr Green raised a truly interesting point when he quoted Patek Philippe in saying  “All pieces found in a cardboard box or plastic bag after July 1st, 2017 will be viewed as a fault.” So, from the perspectve of Patek Philippe, a sealed or double-sealed watch will be actively discriminated against. I don't think many people picked up on our dear Moderator's point here, but I think its important. A sealed Patek Philippe watch carries quite a negative connotation now from the manufacturer's perspective. One could argue that this is one argument to suggest that sealed watches may not command such a premium. I think there may be other arguments to suggest this too.


For example, within the world of vintage Rolex, the manufacturer has no interest at all in validating a vintage Rolex. I am fairly sure that Rolex as a manufacturer don't really know whether today's vintage representations are or are not fakes. That is certainly true for the best fakes. The best fake Rolexes fool even the most meticulous collectors. Secondly, Rolex as a manufacturer has made it quite clear that its interest is in selling modern Rolex and not maintaining a focus on its vintage history. The same is NOT true for Patek Philippe. The latter have always kept details of every watch that they have sold, they maintain a superb museum for the vintage icons and they pay tremendous respect to their history. Further, it is significantly harder to create fake Patek Philippe watches because the level of craftmanship and complications has always been of such a high level that its simply too tricky for a faker to achieve well. Of course, there will be fake Patek Philippe watches, but the manufacturer is extremely adept at identifying them....and they will identify them.


However, consider a scenario where a faker decides to create a decent fake and then seals it in authentic-looking plastic. It is a great deal easier to fake the plastic than it is the watch. In a sealed plastic wrap, nobody in the grey market ever gets to see whether a watch is fake or not. For manual watches, you cannot even determine if a watch works or not!   If you buy a Patek Philippe in the grey market that is sealed, you take a leap of faith because fakers can now work out that faking plastic is very easy. It doesn't even have to be a fake Patek Philippe in the plastic. A "faker" can buy a pre-owned 5131 that has been opened and used. The faker can then put it in a (fake) sealed plastic bag. He can then sell it at a premium because it is in a plastic bag! Wow. What an easy scam. The faker can scoop the difference between the premium on a sealed watch and a normal secondary market price JUST by working out how to fake a plastic wrapper. What an easy buisness.


In the past, speculators have utilised the sealed-plastic modus operandi to facilitate their speculation. So-called collectors who routinely buy sealed watches only to sell them unopened have similarly profited from this action. I would argue that this type of behaviour may soon be redundant as a sealed watch now represents a risk. I just don't know what is inside a sealed plastic bag and I am just not prepared to pay ANY premium for something that may be flawed. If a watch is in brand new condition, I want to see that. I just wouldn't buy one in a sealed plastic bag in the secondary market......if you do consider it, demand a big discount because you really have no idea what is inside.