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Where are we with watches? Some thoughts on the current watch world.
That may sound like a strange question on a watch forum. We are all here because we are watch fans and lovers, but the question remains.
I had this discussion many times, with a lot of friends, through private message or in person, recently.
Indeed, for some years now, the watch fair(s) are less and less interesting, the novelties are not so thrilling, or, should I say less and less exciting, while prices are madly going up, Innovation is less and less present, as well as daring watches.
There are always some exceptions, for sure but they are rarer and rarer... And when there is something of interest, brands play the card of " unobtainable " because of the the price or the availability.
Did we become " cows to be milked " for them? What is this fools game which consists in stating that most of the watches they make are not available for sale?
What is this " luxury " world where you have to take an appointment when you want to see some watches?
All of this generates a feeling we can call... " Horofatigue ".
STILL...
Still, there are more and more people who are paying more and more interest to watches which were produced between let's say the late 90's to the early 2010's. At that time, Creation, Innovation, Madness, Excitement everything we miss nowadays was present, almost each year. Patek, Vacheron, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger Lecoultre, Girard Perregaux, Ulysse Nardin, even Panerai made us dream, and the list is not exhaustive!. We were waiting for the SIHH and the Basel Fair like excited children just before Christmas.
So, there are still watches you can hunt, watches which will provide a lot of pleasure and satisfaction, from that era... Or from the vintage era. How many vintage Patek, Rolex, AP, Girard Perregaux, Ulysse Nardin, Jaeger Lecoultre, Omega, Universal Genève, Mido, Favre Leuba, just to mention a few of them, are desirable? Many!
So, while the watch industry seems to look for a second breath or to be at the end of a cycle, our passion for watches is still there. Go to some serious second hand watch shops, or go to some GTGs, and you will see if your heart doesn't beat faster in front of some marvels from a Past which is not always so distant.
Another solution is to play the Independents' card. They take care of their Customers, but the availability can be a problem, as well as the service of our beloved tic tacs... And at a certain price, too.
So, my friends, Passion for Watches is still there, despite the current offer. We just have to widen our scope, and consider watches from the Past, recent or distant.
We can really feed our dreams and desires in the Past!
Maybe this will give a lesson to all these brands which treat us like milked cows? Maybe they will wake up and give us what we really like?
What do you think? Are we only a few to think this way? Am I exaggerating Reality?
I am curious to read your thoughts.
Best,
Nicolas
I couldn’t agree more. Once an item flips from being a functional tool to a status symbol to an actual asset…the original functional attributes (which is what drew us in into this hobby) become less and less apparent in the “novelties” and it becomes
the Veblen-ism which dictates things.
To me, though, this means that non-hyped vintage and neo-vintage pieces (I’m mainly talking panerai and JLC in my case) are the way to go, along with carefully-selected independents (I won’t name names).
Basically, I agree.
Yes I think alike! 👍🏻
Pitty in many ways for us, also for me (as an example).
I begin to look less and less at established luxury manufacturers, because of the price increases (which I find simply rud), or the availability issue. In many ways the whole behavior of these brands is not what I want to support.
Good for newer established smaller brands, that show dedication, an eye on details, come with reasonable prices and can actually be bought! I supported a lot of these brands! In fact ALL the watches I bought the last 3 years come from thats sector!
I see it positive - it offers me the possibility to look behind the known curtain and discover other watches just because of that! They get the deserved attention and can grow, which is good as well!
Also it forces me to look clearer at what I really want! 👍🏻😅
I am glad to read this, Nicolas
from having to spend an exuberant amount on other items, to having to be interviewed, to trying independents (who may have quality control issue), just to get a SS watch that I like. I am stepping away from this craziness. I found a much better alternative, the Swatch Snoopy.
Totally agree with your opinion, Nicolas!
I just cannot put my mind around the fact that modern Rolex and similar watches (A TOOL WATCH IN IT'S ESSENCE) has a price tag of $$$$ and sometimes $$$$$ put aside availability. It completely discourages the passion. Which IMHO is a vital part of watch collecting and driving business. It will inevitably have a knock off effect (if not already having) on the manufacturers resulting in low sales and stalling production.
I fully agree, Nicolas. And I do not think you are exaggerating.
The reasons for why it is the way it is, is in my mind complex and hard to pin down. The mechanical watch is not an item of purpose anymore. It is an item of luxury. The correct time (often more correct than a mechanical watch gives) is easily accessible everywhere. When the watch is a luxury item, for many buyers it's more important that it is recognizable. The reason to buy it is to show of, and to do that it must be recognized.
The resent increase in prices makes it even more of a luxury product. Fewer people can by a watch for 10000 Euros than can by one for 5000 Euros. That means fewer watches sold. And the customer have higher expectations on the product. One way for the maker of the product is to move away from the practical aspects of the product and not sell the watch as a thing to tell the time, but as a hard to get thing that even might increase in value. And so we have all the limited editions
Finally I think many new models come to existence in a boardroom with the intention of a sure profit for the company. They do emerge from the passion of a true watch maker.
Just my quick thoughts on the watch world.
The resent increase in prices makes it even more of a luxury product. Fewer people can by a watch for 10000 Euros than can by one for 5000 Euros. That means fewer watches sold. And the customer have higher expectations on the product. One way for the maker of the product is to move away from the practical aspects of the product and not sell the watch as a thing to tell the time, but as a hard to get thing that even might increase in value. And so we have all the limited editions
Finally I think many new models come to existence in a boardroom with the intention of a sure profit for the company. They do emerge from the passion of a true watch maker.
Just my quick thoughts on the watch world.
Times are changing !
Big brands, big companies, wealthy people are also bored so they are in search for new opportunities, easy ways to make MORE money .... .
What happened with COVID ? Some guys bought all the building materials they could find and stored them in mega warehouses. Prices went berserk 
.
.The same thing is happening with luxury products, people are going crazy, for A it's an investment, for B it's a status symbol since he can afford a steel Patek for 100K.
Everybody wants to jump on that boat, all we can hope is more and more are jumping in the water and drown ;-)
Bim
Aren't there companies that let you ..
... invest in a big collection of watches ? It's like the stock market ... at least you can wear one of those watches I guess. .... I think
I only buy what I like. This is my platinum rule. Remember this 5131R which was offered to me at the retail? I passed, the seller took me for a stupid guy. ;)
We went through the 'Tulip' phase....
...and now we get back to reality. First, let's be thankful that horology did get a VERY nice bit of publicity and promotion these past few years. High-end audio had no such luck. Look at all the new developments in horology in the past few years, amazing!
Sure we had flippers and the like, but that is part of the planned very high currency release. With high currency devaluation (so real estate pricing met with the contracts so the banking system could 'rebalance' their books), it makes sense to seek out things of intrinsic value. Did you know that right now the USA's Federal Reserve central bank is technically bankrupt to the tune of ~$1,000,000,000,000?
Another great benefit of the past few years is that we now know the 1960s 'Holy Trinity' marketing scheme was voted on by no one, had zero actual proof of why those three were chosen, and has absolutely ZERO relevance in 2020 and beyond as TRUE independents and other brands came to the forefront. Thankfully, we true longtime enthusiasts also realized that talented decoration is far beyond the typical three brands many of were 'taught' (beaten into submission?) time and again decades ago. Mass-produced brands such as PP, AP... HA! They are now considered upper-midrange brands by Yours Truly, since imho true high-horology continues to develop in many incredible ways. It is also wonderful to see true independents receive the accolades they very much have earned.
A lot has happened in the past handful of years, and thankfully many wonderful timepieces were the result of the massive influx of free-flowing capital. The future looks very bright for horology, and this is far better than the outlook back in 1997, or the 1980s.
By the numbers, imho, more people are aware of mechanical timepieces as *something desirable*...
...than only a handful of years ago. more people=more consumers=more sales.
Agree we're not going to see the MASSIVE hype as we did at the peak in March 2022, unless central banks decided to once again just give away a few more trillion, yet on a longish timeline we have historically far more 'influencers and awareness' now than i can ever recall. Also, brands, lots of brands, plus microbrands, and DIY thanks to Alibaba and the like.
jmho
Agree we're not going to see the MASSIVE hype as we did at the peak in March 2022, unless central banks decided to once again just give away a few more trillion, yet on a longish timeline we have historically far more 'influencers and awareness' now than i can ever recall. Also, brands, lots of brands, plus microbrands, and DIY thanks to Alibaba and the like.
jmho
I don't know about trends and hypes, I am focusing on the current market, and honestly, nothing thrilling. Just easy money...
Nothing thrilling? Well, let me introduce you to high-performance audio :)
What's your home theater / stereo?
Btw...
"Patek, Vacheron, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger Lecoultre, Girard Perregaux, Ulysse Nardin, even Panerai made us dream".
i remember those days.
Ignore those brands in 2024 and you'll be fine. There are now soooo much more funer-er brands and independents. Sure a classic Ralph Laren shirt is nice, yet sometimes you deserve something ... more. jmho, i love the diversity at all price levels. And if you have deep pockets, add a nice desk or wall clock. Perhaps commission a tall / Grandfather clock... or Grandmother clock if you need something in a smaller space.
i remember those days.
Ignore those brands in 2024 and you'll be fine. There are now soooo much more funer-er brands and independents. Sure a classic Ralph Laren shirt is nice, yet sometimes you deserve something ... more. jmho, i love the diversity at all price levels. And if you have deep pockets, add a nice desk or wall clock. Perhaps commission a tall / Grandfather clock... or Grandmother clock if you need something in a smaller space.
There are brands which still please me a lot. Tudor, Nivada, for example. And so many watches from these last 25 years!
Interesting write up my friend!
We are all in this hobby for different reasons therefore the answer is more complex than it looks.
The watchword is changing the same way as everything else, it became a moneymaking business and collectors are following the trends that secondary dealers and auction houses dictate.
I’m watching “the trends” for a while now and it’s clearly visible!
Not long ago was SS sports, now it’s vintage and independents.
It’s funny to see how the once who not long ago hyped one thing now hype another, and as usual the herd follows.
The brands just react to the trends that’s all!
Someone with a somewhat convincing power(influencer), states something about a brand and in less than a blink of an eye you see everyone here and other forms buying the same brand selling the best thing of yesteryear
It’s just human heard mentality.🤷🏻♂️
We all buy this things to “flex” at some level because that’s why we buy this useless things in insane numbers(how many watches do we need?).
As for the point of innovation…
How much a field can improve?
How many minute repeats, how many Tourbillon, how many escapements can be invented?
There’s a limit to everything right?
Furthermore if a brand makes something new(new material, new design), we are the first to discredit it and swear by the previous models superiority, we all read this comments daily, right?
The vintage-vintage watches are hyped up and unobtainable just as the new watches(even more), now we see the neo-vintage to be hyped since it’s the only era left!
So it’s all a trend and an attempt to sell and make money regardless of the era!
As for me, I’m mostly done and happy with what I have, and while “never say never”, I don’t plan on adding anything else.
I think it’s all good and we should just buy and enjoy what we really like and stop trying so hard to be different…
Also let’s not forget that there’s a difference between scarcity created by demand and scarcity created by a brand…!
Are you trying to hype vintage?😂
The watchword is changing the same way as everything else, it became a moneymaking business and collectors are following the trends that secondary dealers and auction houses dictate.
I’m watching “the trends” for a while now and it’s clearly visible!
Not long ago was SS sports, now it’s vintage and independents.
It’s funny to see how the once who not long ago hyped one thing now hype another, and as usual the herd follows.
The brands just react to the trends that’s all!
Someone with a somewhat convincing power(influencer), states something about a brand and in less than a blink of an eye you see everyone here and other forms buying the same brand selling the best thing of yesteryear
It’s just human heard mentality.🤷🏻♂️
We all buy this things to “flex” at some level because that’s why we buy this useless things in insane numbers(how many watches do we need?).
As for the point of innovation…
How much a field can improve?
How many minute repeats, how many Tourbillon, how many escapements can be invented?
There’s a limit to everything right?
Furthermore if a brand makes something new(new material, new design), we are the first to discredit it and swear by the previous models superiority, we all read this comments daily, right?
The vintage-vintage watches are hyped up and unobtainable just as the new watches(even more), now we see the neo-vintage to be hyped since it’s the only era left!
So it’s all a trend and an attempt to sell and make money regardless of the era!
As for me, I’m mostly done and happy with what I have, and while “never say never”, I don’t plan on adding anything else.
I think it’s all good and we should just buy and enjoy what we really like and stop trying so hard to be different…
Also let’s not forget that there’s a difference between scarcity created by demand and scarcity created by a brand…!
Are you trying to hype vintage?😂
Trends, hype... I am not after that at all... I love the nuances you bring about scarcity, another post to come on that. As for me trying to hype vintage, I always loved vintage. So, no I am not trying.
I learned a lesson... Do never post about a vintage watch before you buy it... )))
)))
Trends and hype were, are, and always be here.
The watch hobby is no different than any other hobby and now called “market”.
Humans are malleable so fresh blood will always be available.
Trends are good in my opinion because they help develop direction and preferences,
In my opinion trends are like fake eye lashes and yoga pants, they come and go, however I enjoy the latter somewhat more))
As for the innovations, it’s not easy to reinvent a circle with numbers and hands, specially after more than four hundred years being around,everything already has been done, but I think there’s a lot of innovation in the modern watchmaking, cases(ceramic, tantalum, sapphire…)movement design, they even make cases from coffee cans!
So what I think is that we are stuck in time and we want what we like and that as many other things in life are not coming back!
You are right, and maybe remember my post years ago about Lange not doing anything new just changing minor things,(other brands are no exception), so I think this is the cause of Horophatigue, and I’m with you, actually I’m done buying anything.
As for you “hyping up vintage” it was a joke, at least I intended it as such, but if you want to, why not, more power to you!
Personally I always enjoy revisiting the watches you post since I myself was fortunate to own some of them at a certain point in my journey and they bring back great memories, so not to worry, fire away…!🥂
Humans are malleable so fresh blood will always be available.
Trends are good in my opinion because they help develop direction and preferences,
In my opinion trends are like fake eye lashes and yoga pants, they come and go, however I enjoy the latter somewhat more
))As for the innovations, it’s not easy to reinvent a circle with numbers and hands, specially after more than four hundred years being around,everything already has been done, but I think there’s a lot of innovation in the modern watchmaking, cases(ceramic, tantalum, sapphire…)movement design, they even make cases from coffee cans!
So what I think is that we are stuck in time and we want what we like and that as many other things in life are not coming back!
You are right, and maybe remember my post years ago about Lange not doing anything new just changing minor things,(other brands are no exception), so I think this is the cause of Horophatigue, and I’m with you, actually I’m done buying anything.
As for you “hyping up vintage” it was a joke, at least I intended it as such, but if you want to, why not, more power to you!
Personally I always enjoy revisiting the watches you post since I myself was fortunate to own some of them at a certain point in my journey and they bring back great memories, so not to worry, fire away…!🥂