TimeOut

The word on the street says otherwise.

We read so many reports saying the worst is over and that it may ve a V shaped recovery and markets have rebounded and are on the sure road to recovery, unemployment has slowed.  I for one have always been a bit skeptical but today, I re-acquainted myself with the reality of the masses.

I took a cab to pickup my car today which I sent in for a bumper re-spray (a friend nudged me from behind) and started talking to the cabbie.  And what I have found in the past, if you want the pulse of the masses, the real word on the street, cabbies are proably the best source and they shoot straight without a cre for euphemisms.

What reminded me about the current reality all are facing now and sadly the reality that is affecting the masses more adversely which seems to be the law of the word, is that the lady cabbie chaufering me to pick up my car was wearing a Cartier Tank of sorts.

Now it could be a fake which I have see many but at that point in time when I noticed it, my first thought was... Wow, she could afford a Cartier but now has to drive a cab parttime to get by.  Like I said, it could be a $50 fake but given what has happened over the past year and looks to persists for the ext 6 to 9 months, I reckon its not too far fetched a notion that maybe she could afford a real Cartier not too long ago and perhaps fortunes took a bad turn for her (as it has for many) and she needs to do this on weekends to get by.  don't get me wrong.  Nothing wrong with driving a cab.  Its a good honest living that helps put food in mouths and a roof over the heads but just at that point when I noticed it, it reminded me again of the harsh economic times that the masses of the world (me included) are facing.

Have a great weekend.

Hello wmclarenf1,

So did you leave a good $$$ tip for the cabbie to help stimulate the economy? 

-MW

. . . whatever recovery we're seeing now in the American economy is probably due to the massive increase in public debt, which strengthens demand at the cost of currency devaluation and inflation. Also, the American government is in a highly leveraged position today, unlike decades ago; at the end of the Second World War, America accounted for half the world's economic output and was a creditor - today, our portion has dropped to a fifth, and we've been pauperized by insatiable government spending.

My Dad emigrated to America in 1952 to attend college. On his minimum wage full-time job, he was able to live comfortably (along with a few roommates) and paid his way thru undergraduate and graduate school at USC on his own, without a scholarship or government assistance. That would be an impossibility today. I can't think of a better example that illustrates the decline of our standing in the world . . . distressed, Art

but for those who think the USA, who is still the largest consuming economy, is a much musser power lesser or those who bought into the decoupling theory, well, ok... someone needs to lose for someone to gain I guess.

That said, there is no doubt that the US has lost at least a bot of its near absolute economic power and not to your usual suspects like our friends in the Eu or Japan.... if anyone has benefitted from that its the Middle kingdom, China.

This ongoing crises has re-affirmed the emergence of a new economic power in China.  Not going to go in to hard core stats about export, domestic, fiscal stimulus etc.  Just a simplie observation over the past few quarters.  Our small Singapore index have always been more so influenced by the dow and S&P.  It still is, but the sensitivity to what happens in Shanghai has grown tremendously.  Again, I'm sure there are heavy weight wall street fund managers here who may agree or disagree and will be much better placed to explain why or why not.

But that cabbie and her Cartier... that just struck very very close to home for me.

Wall street wants us to think we are.

This reminds me of the early eighties, Japan seemed to be the dominate country by buying quite a bit of US commercial paper and real estate only to face their own crisis several years later. Now it seems that China is following the same path of buying US commercial paper and real estate. I think it will be real interesting to see where this all end up in about ten years.

I wonder if the US would have been better off not intervening in companies like AIG and Fannie Mae. I know that would have dealt a harder fall but a healthier recovery IMO, not that I know much about this.

JerryW

I think you're on to something Jerry, after all you have been through some cycles so know what you're talking about, the word of caution regarding China, in the same vein as Japan was thought provoking.

S

prevents the full extent, or close to it at least, to surface.  I don't think anyone knows the extent of the swaps etc although many speak as though they do.

It would have been good to let those that needed to fall, fall.  We would have been hit much harder but at least that allows the situation to come clean and provide the framework to build a real recovery.  Part of economic cycles I guess.  Its sub-prime lead this time, in about 8 years time, it could the China scenario you decided.  I hope not but markets seem to always get themselves into trouble every now and then.  Its like that syaing from the Godfather... its good to go to the matresses every now and then.  It allows us to get rid of the bad blood.

hi Arthur,

i thing that taxi driver has a good taste regardless the watch is real or not, i take taxi every day, most drivers are man and wearing Rolex. from my observation, i guess almost all are fake one.

by the way, back to your economc story, last saturaday before departing from singapore airport to vancouver for a scientific meeting, at the airport, went in to a watch shop because of having some spare time. of course aimed to see my beloved JLCs...

okay my story begins, the shop staff told me the watch will be closing down very soon by the end of this month, he did not explain the reason, but i guess it may be poor business due to poor economic. then most of watches are offerring BIG discount... some can be be as lower as to 55% less... so tempting right. so did i, can't resist from that... at the end i bought my first JLC reverso grane taille in PG some more.... (of course as i said i wanted to get reverso date, but no more stock).

in any case, i am so happy with my new pruchase!

stefan

Congrats on your JLC Reverso!

Hope to see pics of it in PuristSPro JLC forum!  BTW, how's your JLC MUT doing?

-MW

yes, good question...

MUT is my first love as a dress watch, the problem will come of whic one (MUT or reverso taille) to be wearing when going for function next time. in any case, i think i likely keep both since i really the art of MUT with supeb thin movement as the classic of reverso taille

by the way, i will also keep my HT which now is with me for overseas travel.

love all these three JLCs.

cheers,

stefan

PS: will try to take some pics and show you guys.

Hey, did you see if there are any Reverso Grande Date PG or Grande GMT PG there?  Maybe PM me together with the name of the sales guy.

Have a nice stay in Vancouver.  I'm taking my family up there for a ski trip this December.

the shop managed said they have started the shop clearing early of this month, because of big discount, some customers bought two watches at the same tims. both grande date and grande GMT models either in SS or PG are hot and no more stock in the shop any more, my mine reverso taille is the last one too. i made the decision to buy with 5 mins, the price is too tempting... 

i also saw some leftover GO or IWC, but they are not my cup of tea.

thanks, that's nice, i joined a day tour today, the weather now is very nice, not hot and cold, much feel better than that in SG. LOL...

cheers,

stefan

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i did not get the business card of the shop's staff simply because i was in a rush for the borading. but he said the entire shop will be moving back to the town.

stefan

i arrived here at late Saturday night, joined the day tour on Sunday...

i am now preparing my presentation slides tomorrow (now it is 11.58pm Vancouver time).

stefan

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