and a discussion I could have in the past, I think I would wait until they don't keep time as I want. This usually means I would wait 7 or 8 years at least.
Brands usually say 3-5 years because some people have many watches and don't bother spending that amount of money. They just want that their watches work perfectly: no issues, good timekeeping and waterproof.
Hence, a brand has to give the advice to service it every 3 or 5 years. It they said to wait after 5 or 7 years, some people may then find a problem and would reproach the brand the watch doesn't work as it should. They wouldn't have cared to service it earlier but, as a brand would have said 8 years, they would have been waiting until 8.
So, 3 to 5 years is a kind of security margin for people who don't want to be bothered.
For waterproof, I suggest that after 3 or 4 years, the owner has a waterproof check at his AD before swimming.
The only issue I would have is concerning the price of a service. We know that there is a standard fee that includes lubrification, and some parts change. But we don't know if some parts are charged in addition to the fee.
Hence, if, because of an old oil, 1 or more expensive parts have to be changed, it may cost more than it would have if the service had been performed in due time (3-5 years).
From what I heard, it wouldn't really age that way, maybe one part maximum (like an axle for instance) and it would not be that much in addition to the fee. Hence, considering the servicing cost, it may still be interesting to wait longer if timekeeping is good for the owner.
Of course, waterproofness is another issue and must be check more often. I would say after 3 or 4 years and then every year. I don't know the threshold but going further than the 5 years without a check is not good imho.
Best, Mark