Horological Meandering

Mine are:

- Finally, a reversal (of sorts) to the ever-bigger-watch madness. Oh, there will still be some humungous great Sten-gun-style monstrosities, all poked through with holes and menacingly coated with PVD. But this year's overall zeitgeist demands a slightly more discreet timepiece diameter, around the 41-43mm mark. In 2010, the only people who can look cool with a 47mm behemoth on their wrists are petite ladies.

- The resurgence of yellow gold as a case metal. However, these housings will be a little more massive and squared-off than we might be used to expect in this metal; the new yellow-gold watches will not be for wearing to opening night at the ballet. They will be bold and CEO-friendly.

- Far-out dials. With a reduction in case size, extroverts will naturally seek out more subtle outlets for their louche tendencies. Multi-layered dials in contrasting materials and unusual, attention-grabbing surface treatments will therefore feature in all the major brands' launches this year. We'll still see plenty of open-worked dials, although I think this trend is already on the ebb. Brown dials will continue to be popular. We may see some detailing in silicium. And enamel will continue to storm back into style (but not cloisonné...not yet...)

- Amalgamations, buy-outs and quiet disappearances. Many brands are hurting. It's time for the grand industry clean-out so many have been predicting since, oh, about October 2008. The big boys have already, for some time, been quietly snapping up struggling cabinotier-style suppliers whose particular secrets they have long coveted. In the coming months we will see one or two major players fall over. Their names will survive, for the moment - but will their reputations?

OK, that's me all done. How about it, boys and girls? What do y'all think? Which mechanical complications will go large in 2010? Will mesh bracelets storm back into fashion, riding on the popularity of Omega's Ploprof re-issue? What about plain metal casebacks? Is a mecaquartz revival on the horizon? Are historic re-releases on the wax or on the wane? It's over to you...

Cheers
Tony P

Even if I don't see any revolution to come, this year, well, it is my guess.

I think we'll have both Innovation and Tradition, and that's fine for me.

My hope would be to see some fun and young interpretations of traditional complications, but some brands, like UN and JLC already took this way.

No, what I really hope, as long as I have no crystal ball to guess even a close future, is to see the brands respecting their clients, with TRUE LE if they can't avoid the phenomenon, and much more important, a deep real work into the finish of the dials and movements, and to stop these price increases.

Well, let's see...We'll have the first answers in less than 2 weeks, now...

Best,

Nicolas
This message has been edited by amanico on 2010-01-04 13:21:08

...due to the market crash early last year, some watch projects probably got canceled, investments and production slowed so I'm expecting fewer new watches will be introduced at SIHH and Basel this year.  Probably just more variants of the existing designs.

Also, with gold at record high prices for most of last year, I'm expecting manufactuers will find the raw material price too high for a comfortable margin, thus new models may be launched first (or more readily available) with non-precious metals (e.g. steel, titanium).

Blue

Can't wait to hear what our experts have to predict.

I agree with the dial treatments. It seems as if we are seeing more watches with a "technical" look at lower price points - some well done and tasteful and some looking like Invicta tried to mate with Richard Mille

I hope you are correct about watch case size. I was reading an interesting thread about this on another forum recently and there was much debate on the subject. One poster applied the following logic: Since Rolex updates their case sizes so infrequently and they have now gone to 41 mm for DJ and 43 mm for the Deepsea that there will be no going back to more normal case sizes. Don't know if I agree with that or not but I would love to see a more normal size of 40-42mm. There have been a number of watches that have come out that I would love if not for the monstrous dimensions but I guess I am becoming old-fashioned in my advanced age. Maybe I am more of Purist than I realized??

Cheers,

DSD

Folks,

In my quiet contemplation, I glimpsed the Vision.  The industry will fall into two camps.

In times of trouble, some people revert to their strengths  --  both 'inner' and from inspirational outside sources.  Those who can, will draw upon their strengths and expertise to remind themselves and the clients what haute horlogerie is. Be it mechanical micro-engineering or aesthetic Art, such makers will go back to their roots and the Golden Age of watchmaking for inspiration. There is no need to re-invent perfection...only to re-interprete it.  The question is whether they have the stored resources to continue this path e.g. Piaget, Patek Philippe, Chopard L.U.C., Montblanc Villeret...?

The other camp will have enough resources squirreled away to survive by consolidating and buying in expertise and capacity.  This happened during the 'Quartz Crisis' in the 1970s and is happening now. They will survive by being the last T.Rex on top of the hill. It does not matter what they produce because that is what people will buy in future......eventually. They are also good at what they do e.g. the Usual Suspects.

There is a 3rd group, despite my two camp theory and that is Rolex and Swatch who will continue to make the same things they have for decades. In a crisis, people are comforted by the familiar. Like apple pie and a ham sandwich, a DateJust and Swatch Irony are comfort food for the masses.

 

Regards,

MTF

Thank you for the very eloquent memo MTF.

No message body

Sorry for that, Melvyn, but your subject line just provoked that ...

Anyway, I would not dare to make any prophecies, since my predictions are normally wrong. Several months ago, the economic crisis appeared to eat up at least a dozen or so of the watch manufacturers, but in fact, only a few went out of business. For the others, it seems, business returned to usual after but a short time of stagnation. For most companies, 2009 will be not worse than 2007, which was already a record year.

What I assume that might happen is that more even luxury brands will issue one or two "affordable" models; classically designed, withn proven but not spectacular technology, at a price level that these brands have occupied for the last time in the early 2000s. the European market will demand more complicated pieces in stainless steel.

Your last paragraph, dealing with Swatch and Rolex: "Too big to fail?" I lost my belief in this principle when the PANAM letters were removed from a certain building in Manhattan ...

Regards,
Marcus

Marcus,

I did not say Rolex and Swatch Watch were too big to fail.  I meant that their products are too familiar to disappear.

Multi-axis tourbillons in fusion case materials, polished to mirror finishes, may come and go but people will still buy a Rolex DateJust or a Swatch Irony watch.  We got Banofee pies and Frappuccinos in recent years but people will still want classic apple pie and black coffee.....sometimes.

MTF

50% Marketing (I'd like to say 'looking forward' and hopefully not up their trou de cul) and 50% "Let's wait and see if they buy what's on the market now" kind of logic.  Meanwhile, antique/old watches will still be in big demand among collectors and afficianados (and purists).

And Seiko will keep designing them as they only can, while Rolex will be Rolex, ya know.  Vive les montres in 2010!

=:^D

Of course, we wil notice a come-back of thin and quiet watches. But we all know that the brands which will bounce back after the crisis will be the ones which are able to offer something new to the customers. They want to be surprised.

Fr.Xavier

Main reason: the brands want to cut cost and at the same time maintain or increase sale.

I have already seen some watch retailers link with the bank to provide special payment scheme by instalments with free interest.

Regards

Ling

Could not agree with you more!