Independents

DonCorson
[AHCI]
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A big jump....

If I understand you correctly Kevin you are asking who will be the next generation independents?
Where are the next up and coming independents hiding?
Well I can say thay are hiding in the workshops of the brands like PP, AP, Chronode and others waiting out the storm.
It is a big jump in todays market... well in any market...  to try and feed yourself and your family from independent watchmaking.
Just this week we had to witness end of a very active independent movement maker, Les Artisans Horlogers.
And it is impossible to say if your next design will suddenly be the next great thing for collectors ... or not.
I think that almost all the independents have asked themselves the question if it was really a good idea to set out on their own at some time during the last 3 years.
There are no hard numbers, but right now many independents appear to be doing well, but there are just as many where the rumour kitchen says they are just scraping by, by only eating bread and water.
These people are all essencially artists, these are in general not the ones who are the wiley businessmen or those that best optimise a mass production.  As with all the arts, there are a few big stars and lots of people who are just as talented, but just weren't the right person at the right place at the right time with the right message.
I know several watchmakers who might be making the plunge if they theought that the time was propice.
But looking at the market data these days one can only conclude that without a recognised name it is damn hard to get out in the world.  What sells is brand recognition.  Even at the tiny scale of the "boutique" watchmakers.  And a 3 man company can not afford to do the marketing necessary to be around the world every year.

Do not worry, the talent is there.  Behind the scenes the watchmaking world is very active and bubbling.  There is the question if this goes to the advantage of the big names or if independents can claim their portion of the stage.
I bet that they will continue to stake their claims, but maybe not so soon or maybe not in ways that we are thinking of today.
Don