A friend and fellow waiting list participant tells me that as of the most recent update (which was apparenly some time ago, so must be taken with a grain of salt) there were 36 watches formally assigned to 5 initial batches, and another 22 serial numbers possibly allocated. Serial numbers run from 0 to 99, but few above 50 appear to be reserved.
From the other set of recent photos it looks as if Volker is trying to complete an initial group of 12 sets of plates/bridges. The data from a while ago suggest that at least for some watches many of the other parts have already been made, although with the changes in the movement design it may have been necessary to re-make some of these.
So...how many watches can Volker finish in a year? If we use historical rates, we know the answer -- but let's be more optimistic. A VH Antiqua takes 900 hours of labor to make -- if the VA takes this much, then we're talking 3 per year (ugh). I don't know how many Simplicities Mr. Dufour turns out in a year, but I'm guessing 20 or so -- in that case, Volker could burn through his total potential order backlog in something like 3 years (better). In addition, Volker may have lots of parts already good to go, so the first batches of watches may move more quickly once the bridge finishing bottleneck is eased (even better). And, while Volker's finishing work seems to be of a good standard, ultra-finishing is not part of the VA ethos, so time will likely be saved there (great!).
I don't have any knowledge of how many people may have cancelled orders over the past several years, or whether that was even possible -- so I don't really know what the backlog is at this point. So, lots and lots of uncertainty about timing at this point -- all that is clear is that when n is non-zero for delivered, functioning watches we will be able to get better fix!
That's at least as much as I know...
Best,
Gary G