This subject has been quite often discussed indeed and many answers and remarks have been put forward, even very recently when a few members have posted there good experience of overhaul.
You have also been talking about this Service delay matter a few times already in the past and it shows how important it is to you. However, I would liek to add a few remarks here below.
- Standard caliber change: I wouldn't personally like to have a change of movement as my caliber was sold with the watch and part of it. Otherwise we could even just give a whole watch in exchange of the owner's one (exact same reference and version), it would be even quicker. But I want my watch, etc...
Furthermore, there would be a problem with the serial number engraved on the bridge.
The calibers inventories would need a minimum level that would represent for each caliber a huge number of parts, needing a lot of time. Furthermore, you can't let a caliber newly oiled without keeping it in a proper area and you would have to forecast perfectly the needs in order a caliber doesn't stay more than a month in stocks. This seems to me impossible to do considering the volumes and random watches that come in, depending on the time of the year etc... The cost of maintaing such a stock would be very high imho.
- Similar parts: it would be interesting to know where you read that the parts are now easy to change but, from what I understand the CNC machines make a very good work indeed but remains quite "raw" regarding the microns +/- precisions required. Once a part is brought to the watchmaker he usually has to perform some very few modifications because it never matches perfectly the place it has to fit in. That's why the human intervention in such watches is necessary and that parts can't be all replaced in a standard way, like in a car for instance.
- About the time needed for servicing, you forgot the shipping and customs regulations that can take a significant part of the time.
For watches sent to Geneva (especially the complicated ones), here is what we can expect:
- pick-up by the shipping company (1 or twice a week)
- customs controls exit of the country and also before entering Geneva (can take a long while there)
- technical checking at the manufacture as you mentionned
- cost estimate sent to AD, which then sends it to the client who sends it back to the AD who sends it to Geneva
- overhaul work performed (considering the type of complications which can be handled only by very trained watchmakers, especially regarding complicated pieces)
- period of testing (at least 2 weeks)
- back to customs again (1 to 2 weeks, with leather issues if with strap etc...)
- arriving after a few days/weeks at the final destination's customs with their own regulations and checking (US with leather, taxes etc... for instance)
- shipped to AD.
This can take a long while added to the servicing time and the watches they already have to service.
By defnitition if you have no wait, then there is a period of times when watchmakers are understaffed too. It is a balance to find.
If you also have a specific technical issue they have to solve it and thus can be much longer.
I personally think that 5 to 6 months for a complicated watch is not too much and 3 to 4 months for a not complicated watch is good too. These watches are not serviced like a 1000-5000 € watch is.
- There are also more and more complicated pieces, like QP especially or chonographs, and they are particularly longer and more difficult features to handle with, needing a more experienced watchmaker, who is by definition rarer.
-Finally, you say that we all have a long service but personally I had a normal time (3 months overall for a 5712) and many here reported their own similar experience. As I said very recently in a thread about an owner's servicing feedback, it seems to depend on the regions: US for instance has more delays while Europe seems to be good.
It would be interesting to have the figures from a real and complete statistical basis. I think that some examples can't show what the truth is. As we say in France, we hear more about the delayed trains than the ones that arrive on time.
The problem is quite simple in fact. A long period of high growth (high sells) in the 2000-2015 period, much quicker than the time to realize and take measures (new facilities, training of new watchmakers) to increase the Servicing departments sizes.
Many brands are taking measures and I think that the 500 M€ project from Patek (facilities, training etc...) so as the training of local watchmakers for 324 and 240 movements for instance show that the brand is willing to bring a good solution. It will just need a little more time.
This is a subject we've discussed quite frequently and it is still the same: some delays are too long and now we have to wait they bring the improvement to their facilities and processes. Be certain they are aware of this matter as T. Stern as often mentionned in interviews.