Patek Philippe

Now that 5951 and 5950 have been announced and I guess the Lemania based split-seconds chrono perpetual should be discontinued every minute. I also wonder what the mark price for a 5950A and 5951 is. If 5004 is not to be discontinued, would it be marked up in-line with the 5951? Please express your thoughts... Larry

The 5004 isn't discontinued yet and I don't think it will happen pretty soon. At least not in 2010 and probably not 2011.

Why ? Because the 5950A and 5951P are much more expensive. They use the same caliber that is used in the 5959. if they could only offer a perpetual chrono (with or without splitsecond aka 5970 and 5004) based upon this movement I'm affraid those watches will be unreachable for almost everybody. The 5004 was not often seen on this or other fora but to be honest, I saw enough 5970.

If you know that the  5950A  costs CHF 440.000  (euro 300K, usd 420 K) and the 5951P costs CHF 500.000 (euro 350 K , usd 470K) I don't expect to see them very often ;-)

I think they will bring us a third level of chronographs :

- Entry level where we find the automatic chrono 5960 and 5980. Which are VERY nice chronographs which can be compared to what other manufactures offer at their top range !

- A notch higher  you'll find the 5170 and 2 watches which will probably follow in the next years. One which can replace the 5970 and one which can replace the 5004. Both will be chronographs based on the movement we find in the 5170 (CH 29-535 PS). And like the 5170 is more or less priced at the 5070's level I think we'll get a perpetual and perpetual splitsecond in the near future which could replace the 5970 and 5004.Maybe a 'new' 5970 at Basel 2011 because they don't offer a perpetual chrono today. and maybe they will discontinue the 5004 at Basel 2011 and bri g us a successor in 2012.

And last but not least we get the upper class, the nec plus ultrain chronometry. A group of super high end chrono's like the 5959 , 5950, 5951. which use the (CHR 27-525 PS)

That's how I see it

 

nt

But what startegy is Patek following by dividing the split seconds perpetual chrono into a upper class with in-house movements (5951) and the existing more affordable 5004?

I am just worried that Patek will upstage all split-seconds perpetual chrono in line with the MR and tourbillon (i.e., inclusive of the previous 5004) and if so, I have to bid adios to my dream watch 5004. (500,000CHF) is not something I can afford anymore.

Larry

Perhaps your view is correct...

Likely that there is not enough "watch masters" in Patek to make the split seconds...from the queue of 5004 we can get it...

So, by economic principle...increase price is a very reasonable way!

In fact, split second chrono is always the flagship of the factory...

 

I can't believe they would ask the same for a 5004 as what the ask for a 5951. That is not the way they do busniness. The 5004 might rise 3 or 5% per year (like almost every watch does) but I really can't believe they would raise it 100%. They just can't justify it.

How would you justify a 100% more premium for a 5951 just for its in-house caliber?
Setting a split-seconds perpetual chrono at the price tage of 500,000 CHF is really beyond reach for the ordinary collector. And 5951 does not contain any special invention of advanced research like the 5250/5350/5450..

Anyway, it looks like my dream watch 5004 is drifting further away

Larry

Its "special invention" is that it's ultra thin - the thinnest split-second caliber ever made.  A lot of R&D went into the design of that caliber.  The 5004 is extremely thick, whereas the new watch is very wearable.  For you, perhaps, there is no difference between the two, but in my view there is significant advancement and innovation between the two.

Larry I think you're confusing 2 movements.

I agree that the 5951 is very expensive but you can't compare it with the 5004. The 5951 has the Caliber CHR 27-525 PS Q which is a modified Caliber CHR 27-525 PS which we find in the 5959. The 5959 was since it's introduction always 100% more expensive than the 5004. So one could as the question why is the 5959 (only split second) 2 times the price of the 5004 (also splitsecond + perpetual). The answer is the different movement. You can't compare those 2 splitseconds. The CHR 27-525 PS (5959) is an ultra thin single buton chronograph movement. I'm sure it is much more difficult to make than the splitsecond we find in the 5004.

That's why I think they will introduce a replacement for 5004 in the future but the will definitely NOT start from the CHR 27-525 PS (5959). They will imo start from the CH 29-53 5 PS (5170). It's not because it's inhouse that they charge a huge premium. The CH 29-535 PS is completely inhouse and the listprice is almost the same as the 5070 (lemania). So IF they would use this CH 29-535 PS to make a perpetual splitsecond I'm sure they can deliver it for a price which comes close to the 5004.

You just can't compare the CH 29-535 PS with the  CHR 27-525 PS.

I am just perplexed about what Mr Theirry Stern is heading towards in terms of marketing if he decided to extend the genera of the CH 29-525 PS originated from the intangible 5959 to form the 5950A and 5951. So now we have three versions of the split second chrono based on the ultra-thin split seconds, each mounti8ng to > 350,000 CHF for each. Now what? They are likely to become museum piece because of their intangible high premium.

On the other hand, if Mr Stern will develop another split seconds perpetual chrono basing on the cheaper non-ultra-thin CH 27-535 PS, and make a replacement for 5004, how would they differentiate this 5004 replacement with the gold-reference 5951? How can a buyer be pursuaded to spent 100% more on just a ultra-thin version of the split-seconds perpetual chrono?

I just still don't get it.

When I start buying Pateks in 1990's things are much more simple: The best chronos remain to be hand-wound and Lemania based. To me, my 5070J and 5020R has been keeping near-atomic accuracy (+0.5 second in 4 days) and I still like them everyday.

As we speak, Patek has a few versions of the automatic chronos and now came the 5170, 5950, 5951...and you say Patek will replace 5004 with yet another (cheaper) new split seconds perpetual chrono caliber...

I don't think Patek collectors can catch up...honestly.

I maybe outright wrong, but I guess Thierry will just stick to the 5951 for a good good while so that anyone who want a split second perpetual chrono will just need to fork out half a million francs for it, 5004 being discontinued this year of course.

My 2 cents,

Larry

Larry, if they had clientele for the 5959 I'm sure a lot of these collectors will also show interest for the 5951. And they have the clientele otherwise they wouldn't have made the 5950

Also, the production will probably very low. i don't think they will make more than 30-50 of these references per year

Collection is only worth what the Collectors are willing to pay.

I think we're going to be correct.

Still, I already think I'm in love with the original 5970, 5070, and 5004.

All the best watches are made for the baby boomer generation... What about my generation?

Bruno, I think your analogy is spot-on...

Perhaps Mr Stern will debute a round version of 5951 next year to suit the more general palate...

Larry

PP does not take order for 5004 anymore, it is discontinued

nt.

Thanks Bruno for your analysis.  I think the same.  Cheers, WS

Everybody knows that it is no more possible to get a 5004, for 2 or 3 years.

And a Patek director told me yesterday that it will be terminated after delivery the last 10-15 pieces this year (for happy buyers).

Sorry for those that wanted one !

Cheers...

I've been offered a brand new one for 200k USD. Should i go for it?

Yes it is

If you don't buy it, I like to buy it.

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...5004P and 5004R are now officially discontinued !

PP will deliver a few 5004J before the end of Automn (to people who asked for one 2 years ago or more), before removing the 5004's from catalogue.