FabR
[Senior Patek Moderator]
26166
Agree, I think this is a good point --- competition is definitely not exclusive to watches or hobbies (think of virtually anything in life!), but I agree it's getting harder to enter this world, even for people with passion, knowledge, funds, etc..
Equally concerning or at least worth mentioning, the better brands might also lose existing collectors who can no longer keep up or stay at the very top ;-)
An example that I sometimes make and I find significant, especially now that Patek is becoming a tad better known among the general public, is the following: imagine that only *one million* among today's wealthy people (and there's many, many more! ;-) decided that they suddenly need a Patek Philippe watch in their life....then the TOTAL production in the ENTIRE 183-year history of the Brand would barely suffice to satisfy the demand! Make it *two million*, and you've also allocated ALL the watches Patek will produce in the next 15 years!! 
Not sure if this is good or bad (or both), but we are certainly living a VERY interesting and competitive world my friend!
Not sure if this is good or bad (or both), but we are certainly living a VERY interesting and competitive world my friend!
How long is a wait for a watch acceptable?!
Of late, the wait list for many of the sought after watches have lengthened considerably. Some wouid be happy to place their orders and leave their deposits and wait for at least five years or more for a coveted timepiece. Others may find waiting anything...
For a first watch not a long time… For a 10th watch considerably longer.
It’s not hard to acquire a watch if you don’t have one… Plenty to pick from and then after that I guess it’s just a matter of supply and demand there’s really not much you can do about a waitlist except take your name off it, or be pleasantly surprised if...
Thanks Myles!
Hope that yacht comes your way one day soon! But willing to wait two years for a watch is not bad.
I think the wait is actually a good thing (within reason). I'm looking forward to a 2025 watch :)
Thoughtless high velocity consumption is pervasive in society today. Limited editions, drops, flash sales, it is all the opposite of waiting years for an esoteric thing so having some longer more considered buying I think is a great thing. That said, idea...
I personally like waiting for a great watch
because I know when it finally arrives, it will be appreciated so much more. To own something that is rare is always a privilege.
Kudos to your patience and perseverance Nico!
Not many would wait that long for anything. I waited 56 years to meet the right woman but I am a bit of a loony in that area!
I would differentiate
sought after pieces from larger manufacturers: 2 years two or three-hand pieces from small independent brands: 1 year grand complications which are made on demand: 3 years in general I believe that life is too short for a waitlist of more than 1 year
Thanks for the breakdown!
Very objectively done. Although it might appear that a two or three handed watch might be quicker to make, sometimes the amount of work that goes into the movement and case finishing makes the entire process longer. I find it most intriguing for example t...
Agreed that finishing takes a lot of time, independent of the complication
However, I waited for my Minerva grand complication 1.5 years. The workshop in Villeret comprises only 12 employees and every single technical part including the hairspring is done solely there. They only source the case and enamel parts. So this would be...
You have a lovely Minerva!
And the finishing on these watches are always first class. I don't think any of the independents I have mentioned have any more than 2 to 6 people working on the watches. 12 would be unthinkable for many a small independent. Minerva of course has always b...
In the case of me "really wanting it"... As long as it takes, frankly.
Here's the thing, with watches like the ones you are talking about, there is a very fixed, very limited supply of people with the skill needed to create them so production really can't be scaled. The wait times are a result of demand, something also out o...
Thank you Paui for elaborating
and it is collectors like you who end up with all the nicest things in life as many a time life is a test of one's patience. Or as they say, good things come to those who wait!
Take it from me
Six years is a long time even if we keep ourselves busy doing other things. Three to four years is doable for most.
If i get to that point, it will be in the context of me considering it as money I can comfortably afford to lose..
In the meantime, I’ll be out there buying other things, enjoying life As to dchang81’s point about what makes it worth the wait, well, this is where things get personal where a man’s reason is his own and does not need to make sense to others. That is aft...
Life is too short and unpredictable
so although we might be willing to wait for certain things to come our way, it is always best to live life to its fullest while we can and there is so much out there to enjoy. We are quite blessed in life and might aspire to fulfil even greater dreams and...
Good point. That’s the risk indeed. When something changes during the wait..
The longer the wait, the higher the chance that circumstances may change which includes preferences as you mentioned 😁
The good thing I guess is that
should we ever not want these sought after watches with long waiting lists, when they do finally arrive, we can part with them without losing any money. That is a consolation just in case our preferences have changed over time.
It depends on your bankroll...
...if you can afford all of the watches you want, just get on the various lists and go about with your life. You never know when there will be a bubble correction and you will get them sooner than you think...
You are an optimist!
A correction? Unless independents start expanding and hiring more staff, the wait lists are unlikely to shorten. There also seems to be an increasing number of wealthy people craving for status symbol watches like the Royal Oak, Nautilus, Richard Mille an...
The question for me is what makes it so unique that it's worth the wait
Can't really pony up the money to wait several years but I imagine that the watch would have to be so different than what I have to justify waiting half a decade. Something personalized or unique architecture or I already have everything else. Too many ch...
I do salute Frodsham in this matter
because they offer a refundable deposit which is very fair since 8 years is a long wait and anything might happen during that period. Saying that, apparently, only one customer has ever requested for a refund from Frodsham. Even I took 3 years before deci...
Hmmm….interesting situation…
What if, unfortunately, something happened (god forbidden) and someone put full deposit and the person or the watch brand is gone for good? Who will follow up with the $$$. I guess there has to be some visibility within the family or brand to honor and re...
Yes I think it is vital
that any deposit or amount paid in advance will be refunded if either the watch company or the client perishes. Saying that when I did meet Roger Smith in November 2016 before placing my order, I was forward enough to ask him what would happen if somethin...
Probably yes!
You see my Smith is being made by his team and I cannot imagine Roger himself making my watch. So should Roger not be around, the same process will be adopted with the same results. The Daniels anniversary for example was not made by George and completed ...
Great Question!!
For me depends! I think you make an excellent point above about how wait time will be naturally longer for small boutique makers BUT for Kikuchi Nakagawa i would expect at most a year but for bexei a couple of years (especially if it is customized for me)...
Thanks Spencer!
One really has to examine a Kikuchi Nakagawa to appreciate the amount of labour intensive black polishing that has gone into the case and hands. Although many of the parts including the movement are outsourced, these two gentlemen have arguably over done ...
To me it depends on how much you love it
5 years for a Frodsham is acceptable to me, just like 6 for a Roger Smith, but anything over 3 years for a mass produced watch is probably too much. What bothers me the most though is the fact that with some brands you are not even guaranteed to ever rece...
I fully agree with you Andrea
I like to know how long I have to wait for a timepiece. Not being told to me is quite unprofessional for any brand but perhaps it is their way of telling us that we should not expect to receive one!
The waiting is the hardest part....
So how long the wait, obviously a Rolex, Patek, FP Journe, or most typical brands are easy to get one way or another. For those who desire true art and craftmanship, rare talent realized... wait time is less a concern than receiving the most elegant expre...
I believe
people these days are a lot more impatient than they were in 1715 - many want things quick and are not prepared to wait resulting in the growth of the used market. I myself would never pay above list for anything but I fear that I am in a minority here. W...
Wait times
For me there are too many variables to wait 1, 2, 5 or more years. I seem to be able to find timepieces that I love and appreciate without worrying and waiting about things I cannot control. That’s just me.
Good for you!
I am glad what is readily available has satisfied your craving. It always a joy being able to buy something immediately. There is always a danger that while waiting, the passion for the object diminishes!
Interesting…..I feel that up to 2 years is bearable and more predictable.
3 mths wait time used to seem long but nowadays anything from 6-12 mths seems normal. For the brand itself, does it make sense to even take orders going into 5, 10 years esp for small independents with significant “key man” risk. Did they also acquire suf...
Fair comment!
Three years is a healthy waiting period. Some brands like Smith and Gronefeld (for the Principa) have closed their order books which seems logical although this has resulted in higher prices for their used models. Others like Frodsham and Kikuchi Nakagawa...
This is a. Great topic.
For myself, anything longer than 18 months is too long. No disrespect to the maker, but for me, the wait to acquire a piece diminishes the joy of ownership with every passing month. I also feel more affinity to the less established makers than the guys/gi...
We are spoiled for choice more than ever!
There are many brilliant independent watchmakers emerging practically on a monthly basis and although Dufour, Smith and Voutilainen are legends, the newer independents have also demonstrated a high level of craft. Of course one might feel apprehensive to ...
Waiting's not my thing.
Times change. Tastes and preferences change. What looks compelling today... years from now... maybe not so much. Something I find truly bizarre is buyers placing unsecured interest free deposits for a future delivery opportunity. In the interest of full d...
Waiting is not everyone's cup of tea Steve
In fact, I am pretty sure that you are not in a minority/. At the end of the day, it all bores down to how much we desire a certain object versus our patience. I am known to be an impatient person for most things but am happy to wait for something I feel ...
Keeping in mind the context is waiting for *watches*.
There are plenty of things outside of watches that are worth waiting for, where patience is rewarded.
It is always a matter of priorities
Some would prioritise a home over a car, a car over a watch. Others might prefer a yacht to a sought after watch. If we want something badly enough, we will wait for it.
Fabrizio, your formula is unique! :-)
I am pretty sure no one else has ever thought of such a formula or will ever think of it! And I sure hope that you do not have to wait 183 years for your next Patek even if you are happy to do so
What I also thought was (mostly) a joke while I was typing it, maybe it’s really the correct formula in the end!😂 Seriously, wait times of course depend on several factors and always carry a degree of subjectivity…
…but when we are speaking of objects of artistic/cultural importance that go way beyond a mere technical exercise, such as true high-end watches are (in my view), I do believe that history, tradition and other values must be among the critical factors to ...
Agreed - 91.5 years for a Patek seems about right.
Longer for a VC does not! We joke about these things but I have a strange feeling that wait lists will only get longer as time progresses.
I am less sure Fabrizio!
58 years plus for a Rolex will only result in the prices of second hand Rolex watches increasing in value to Patek minute repeater prices!
That is for sure!
I am not sure about everyone else on here but my watches will end up as a large part of my estate when I perish one day, definitely exceeding the value of my cars.
I do feel sorry for new collectors
who want to start collecting these sought after brands. They have the money, they have the passion but they may not be allocated the pieces as they do not have a purchase history. It is almost like an exclusive gentlemen's club where entry is impossible.
Agree, I think this is a good point --- competition is definitely not exclusive to watches or hobbies (think of virtually anything in life!), but I agree it's getting harder to enter this world, even for people with passion, knowledge, funds, etc..
Equally concerning or at least worth mentioning, the better brands might also lose existing collectors who can no longer keep up or stay at the very top ;-) An example that I sometimes make and I find significant, especially now that Patek is becoming a t...
Agreed Fabrizio!
I am just happy to own one Patek at present and my target is three Pateks which will be about 30% of my entire collection!
It will all depend on how kind Patek UK are to me
when it comes to allocation. You will be one of the first to know
My dealer in the UK did tell me
that almost every Patek is now an allocation piece! Such is the demand for our favourite brand
Correct, what Patek has been able to achieve --- in year 2022 alone --- in terms of demand for its entire (men's) catalog is honestly amazing.... I'll leave it to the historians to decide this, but personally I draw a big line with the 2022 W&W fair.
If you go back and see our March 30 announcement on this platform (and then that of the following week), the "stroke of genius" by Patek was to present an impressive and broad lineup, touching upon a number of different collections BUT overtly --- almost ...
Thanks Fabrizio for your invaluable input!
My only concern is whether or not my AD considers me a 'top' Patek collector. Firstly, how long before they allocate me a 5226G. And arguably more importantly, will I be allocated a 5231G?! Watch this space!
Fingers crossed for you my friend! The 5231G is truly up there, but also the 5226 is impressive in my view, with its very unique way of combining simplicity and modern sophistication!
Totally unsurprising, like I was saying earlier, that the new 5226 is a very sought-after Patek even as a precious metal Calatrava! ;-) Please keep us posted! ...
OK, then let’s make this shirt feel really insignificant now….😂😂🐠
I believe it’s the first time I post this “School of Fish” picture online, but I have to admit it’s quite good 😁 ...
Many thanks, I feel incredibly lucky to have been allocated some of these marvels, even if I’m equally madly in love with ALL of Patek’s Rare Handcraft production (including wood marquetry, engraving, miniature painting)😁
I’m especially glad they introduced reference 5177 in year 2018 (a new Calatrava with a hobnail bezel), which I immediately fell in love with! Here’s (of course! ;-) my other 5177 so far…I guess it’s fair to say it’s my favorite reference from the Brand!😄...
Many of us are in love with the rare handicrafts produced by Patek
But it is actually good to see someone we know obtaining them! Apart from Gordon, I know not of anyone else who has amassed such a large collection of enamel dial watches. Well deserved to a staunch supporter of the brand - no wonder you are the Senior Mo...
I think waiting isn’t worth it
I waited a year for a car that never came - indeed the dealer said “we never promised it”. I waited 20 months for my 2021 Corvette and when it came I was disappointed and after 90 days passed it on to someone else. I’ve been on a list for a Cybertruck sin...
Well I have waited 20 months for a F8 Tributo
which should arrive in two months time and I sure hope it does not disappoint me. And if it does then I can always sell it at a premium since the order books are closed. The wait for the car has been most pleasant and that I attribute to the dealer who ha...
For Akrivia, Laurent Ferrier, G&F or Gronefeld I would be willing to wait up to 5 years
but for a Kikuchi Nakagawa I would think twice before I would give my signature. GEO
Fair enough!
The Kikuchi is obviously at a lower price point too while the others you have mentioned are high horology pieces. I have two perfect watches currently in my collection. When I say perfect, I mean in every sense including lugs, crown, strap, weight, height...
They make good watches!
I am sure they will happily take your deposit and get a watch to you faster than five years.
So many variables here.
In general I‘d say if I‘m just on a waitlist, without down payment and without binding order I might still take a watch after 5 years when offered to me. If it‘s a binding order with down payment I‘d go 3 years max and that‘s only for a really special wat...
Thank you for your thorough feedback!
You make a lot of sense actually. The perfect watch is very subjective - for some it might be a Voutilainen or a Dufour. For others it might be a high end complicated timepiece. But I think if we desired a watch enough, we would make an any excuse to buy ...
I haven‘t found a watch yet I‘d be willing to wait more than three years for. (My longest waiting time so far has been 14 months)
Actually, I have lost interest in most brands once they had long waiting times. Not because of the waiting time itself, but because of lacking customer service which came hand in hand with their success. Most known exception to this is FPJ, as the Paris b...
Customer service is indeed vital in an industry where the waiting lists are long
and availability is generally poor. For me, it is part of the watch purchasing experience - the watch is just a part of the equation. I salute you for not having acquired a watch for 15 months. I hope to adopt that discipline from 2024 onwards. I guess I ...
Patience is a great virtue... so do not mind waiting years
Already waited +3 to 5 years for some independants delivered or in the making (Coyon, Bexei, RW Smith,...) up to 7 years (same as you for Frodsham). As still young (from '78) would absolutely have no problem waiting for over a decade. The only thing is: w...
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