Patek Philippe

Baron - Mr Red
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Hey Raymond.....

.....yours is a very interesting question. For one, I had never looked at a potential watch purchase as you suggest...so interesting to contemplate. I also think it is interesting as I suspect it really applies to collectors who only collect modern watches. For a vintage collector, the price one pays is the price it is....there is no uncertainty regarding secondary "value". Thirdly, when buying this watch, one actually doesn't know what the true secondary price will be. Since only 500 are made and when one puts one's name down, there really is no idea where its secondary value will be, I suspect that the answer to your question must, by default, be that one believes in the watch and is prepared to pay the asking price without knowing where its secondary value is or will be. Remember it has trebled but only some time after the very first purchase decision was made....back in Basel. Back in the Spring in Basel, it was not clear where the secondary price would be....
I am not quite as good as 5980 in that I have, historically, sold some of the Patek Philippe that I bought. Having said that, 90% of the Patek Philippe that I have ever bought remain in my collection. My criteria for buying a watch ensures that there is some solidity to why I want something. I don't always get it right, but as a general rule, I do get it right and I keep the vast majority of the watches I buy. If I was making that decision based on whether future price was likely to be up or whether the secondary price would be at a discount or premium, then I would assuredly end up with not only watches that I didn't like so much, but also a much higher turnover of watches. I would also consider myself a dealer or speculator rather than a watch collector.....