Mark in Paris
[Purist]
10488
I must say I don't know what to answer yet
You may have scored a point about bad times and steel models blossoming (I don't have the knowledge baout this).
So, say if I agree or not.
However, about the difficult times we are living, I think there are also positive elements for the future:
- Chinese exports decrease because there is an important transfer from an Industrial based economy to a more domestic consumption and increase of services (which are mainly domestic as well). By the way, as Services are growing and industry based activities are decreasing, it will have a deep impact on our economy structure, worldwide.
China is still strong, very pragmatic and will keep on being productive imho.
- Refugees: everything will depend on whether we can solve the problem in Syria and Middle-east generally speaking.
- Oil pricing is just a transfer of wealth from producers to consumers: neutral in the overall picture
- Britain might not leave EU ( :p ). And it would at least provoque some changes EU needs to implement (I prefer UK stays but just saying that in case of Brexit, there will be very positive undirect upsides on the long term)
- CHF strengh is a problem but that they already impacted on prices I think.
- US presidential election: we won't talk about it, it is not the place but there is a big difference between primary elections and the final round.
Furthermore, there are still developping countries with great potential (even if they suffer from investments bask to the US and EU right now). The African continent is developping quite strongly in several countries.
The risk that is really hard to assess is the one coming from political issues and the main actors from each area of the world.
Gof of war still!
Cheers, Mark
Patek Philippe 2016 novelties are down the road...
Dear forumners, I imagine that you are aware that the Basel fair will open its doors for the 2016 Millesime next week. Hence, it is time to make your wish (and your bet!) We are familiar with pre-exhibition rumors related to this kind of events, we don't ...
A sector dial 5170 in steel would make my dreams true.
Furthermore, a 5170P with black (or white) enamel dial would be great. White would make a nice pair with 5370P. I like your idea about new perpetual using 5127 type of case. But then a new calibre would also be needed. Then World Time... that's such a cla...
A 5170a would be amazing.
And an instant sell out. I will be very interested if it happens.
A Big Surprise would be in line with the introduction of the 5524G last year....
And maybe the 5524 will come in a steel version? Black dial? I think your line of thought is very sensible. After a pilot a diver wouldn\'t be illogical at all. And very surprising. And \'everybody\' would want one. If it\'s as bold as the 5524. Mmmmm a y...
Steel 5524 would be cool.
That would follow the Rolex way. Also after thinking a bit my discussions with people who know, a new perpetual version of 5496 sounds very logical. A diver's Patek would be really a hot item. In order to keep the slimness, a water resistance of 200 m wou...
A true diver needs some way of keeping the dive time right?
Not that a rotatable bezel is perse necessary to do so... Guess that the name Aquanaut would be most logical for a dive watch. BUT The Nautilus could be used for a yacht master kind of watch A count down of 10 mins for sailing matches could fit Patek very...
Patek is safe as long as they walk their own path
but when they start to follow other, the will be lost. Best, Kari
Well....they all give the time ;-)
Kidding aside. Dinosaurs die if they don\'t adapt. Personally I feel (looking at new produced watches) Patek has found some serious competition in A. Lange & Söhne. Maybe not in numbers sold and total monetary value. But they are not alone anymore when it...
I also welcome modernism
but Patek needs to avoid copying. That's the reason why I do not believe that 40th Anniversary Nautilus would be a reproduction of 3700. That would be too close to the idea of AP when they introduced 15202. Best, Kari
Very valid point
It would sell like cupcakes though (not that that would be the right argument in Pateks case)
Patek needs the "hype"
not cupcakes models made of steel. Patek needs to get the people even more excited about the brand and that's the thing helping them with their sales. Best, Kari
There is a way to do it
and looking back at the 1940's to 1990's they have been following their path while other competitors were also moving on. The result is that some have nearly disappeared during the Quartz "ice age" while Patek has reinforced itself from the 1990's. The ri...
What is very interesting is to understand
that Patek is a very different company under the leadership of Thierry Stern than during the times of his father. I think that now when Thierry Stern has been ruling for a couple of years already, he will have more courage to take the brand towards his ow...
I agree
If such brand does what others do, it will have a significant impact on its unique design. However, I don't see them going that way yet. Cheers, Mark
But how do you place the Pilots watch in all this?
Do you think It was just a pilot (pun intended)? Or a cautious start on a new path?
I would say they could be a 1 piece addition only indeed
like the 5235 maybe or like the 5960/1A. Then, they decide to keep them as long as it works (and discontinue them when it fades) or even stop them when they are still successful and make something else. Kind of a 1 shot that brings something interesting, ...
Always fun to guess about these things :-)
Soon we will see what Big Surprise will be.
Patek should discontinue 5960/1A very fast!
The watch is sold with remarkable rebates and that's not good for the business. I can't understand why 5960'/1A is not loved. I think it's really a cool watch (on strap) and with very useful complications. Taking into account the brand, quality and compli...
My feeling is that the Pilot was a trial.
Just to check how thick and hard the ice is. We Finns always check the ice before starting to cross the lake in the winter. Best, Kari
I also believe that Patek will walk their own path.
If not, they will loose at least one client. Best, Kari
I can't see a diver's watch
The pilots (or is it co-pilot?) watch I think suits Patek well, with the sense of glamour and sophistication that accompanies the pilot image. I\'m not sure a divers watch fits the same image - a diver would need a true tool watch.
I agree.
However, the market is tanking and the manufacturers might take unpredictable steps in order to secure their sales. As a diver I agree that the watch should be a tool watch. At the same time i.e. JLC made a "diving watch" from platinum, Rolex from gold, R...
Indeed. It's just a style. Just look at Panerai.
The diving brand. Selling watches with 5 ATM depth rate....
My guess is that I doubt it
as, like some specific models, they usually come in one version or two and that's all (5960/1A, 5524G Pilot, 5235G...). And I hope these specific models won't be too frequent. They bring something but should not radically change the brand's spirit orienta...
I also believe that the Pilot is "one shot".
But probably Patek learned that producing something totally different creates discussion - both for and against. And discussion is always good for business. Best, Kari
Good for short term business but I would say that more important is
what impression, what mark it leaves on the brand. This can lead to a bad final result on the long term.
Every year they make at least 4 pieces I want to buy!
Last year it was the 5131R, 5370P, 5950/1A black dial, and 6102R. The question becomes, do they make 3-4 pieces that I want to buy and realistically can buy without spending a 7 figure USD sum!
How very true.
But the guy in Patek who spoke about 4 watches knows that I buy mostly modest to semi-modest watches. Best, Kari
I thought about your dream steel chrono while writing this
Even if unlikely (but who knows), I'll be glad for you as I know it is an idea you cherish. There really can be other interesting novetlies from the 5130/5140 we most talk about. I thought they could also wait a year before re introducting the WT but you ...
Think about Patek's history.
When times were very difficult, they introduced steel watches... - Chinese export has decreased in a year about 25% - We have the refugee crisis in Europe - The oil prices are so low that all oil producing countries are heavily hit - Britain might leave E...
I must say I don't know what to answer yet
You may have scored a point about bad times and steel models blossoming (I don't have the knowledge baout this). So, say if I agree or not. However, about the difficult times we are living, I think there are also positive elements for the future: - Chines...
Lucky you. You seem to be an optimist.
Bad for me, I am a pessimist. I do not believe i.e. that Chinese economy is mature enough for the transfer. Only time will show. Best, Kari
As you already noticed I like bringing the opposite point of view
This doesn't mean I think it is likely to happen, just that there is another possibility and way things may happen. This being said, I think it is a good time to remain wise and cautious. Cheers, Mark
Without wanting to sound too....floaty
Most of the mentions \'problems\' are so irrelevant.... (this is us....tiny, very vulnerable...) ...
I will, naturally.
I bet it will not be more. I have already more than one or two Patek watches and my intention is not to collect all of them. I will just buy something that will exceed what I already have. Best, Kari
Great post Mark.
Can\'t wait to see what next week brings. I would really like to see a pilot chronograph, but it may be too soon after the release of the 5524 last year. I think we may see a replacement for the5130 as well. I wouldn\'t be surprised to see a new watch usi...
Thank you Russ
I think we are many to be very excited about this. Your chrono idea is good (flyback of course) but I agree with you: maybe to soon in 2016... We've been discussing about the 31-260 caliber housed in the 5235. It is made as an integrated Annual Calendar (...
The watch market is tough these days so we should see some new models.
New 5130 and 5140: Very likely the 5130, 5140 will get redesigned: case will change as they are fading the 5127 case style as you mentioned. The dial of the 5140 models suffers from the “squeezed 5 and 27 ” date number syndrome and I think they know it an...
I hope your wishes will come true
as you really seem to have studied these references like someone who would really have liked to take the plunge but just couldn't (yet). I hope they will. Funny that I'm also a registers PC guy too, even if round subdials bring a more dressy and elegant l...
Mark , don't look back It won't happen
Look to the future Something out of left field Think 5235, 5524( aviator ) But I would love a Plat chono black dial Julian
You're perfectly right Julian
It won't happen, at least not as close. But as the 5196 exists with a sector dial layout, I think it is still possible. A great way to bring a modernized dial, without jeopardizing the DNA. As I said above, I'm not sure it will be good to have too mcuh of...
I think a 5170R is in the wings...
but more important are the 40th anniversary of the Nautilus and the 20th anniversary of the "Annual Calendar" mechanism. I expect to see some fireworks in each category. In Nautilus, I'd like to see a 5712/1A with white dial. I'd also like to see a 42.5mm...
One thing I learned about Patek is that rumors are 99.999% wrong
like the production numbers we see here and there etc... Yes, I remember you pushed for this white dial 5712 and the wider case. The white dial would indeed look very nice and the size could really be something they do for larger wrists and place where pe...
I am sure Patek will surprise the horology world.
The 5140 5130 i feel that it should be discontinued. In the name of evolution. But those are nice pieces. Stick to dimensions not making the watch too big and thick. Simple watches not more than 40mm in diameter and 3.3mm thickness. Complicated models not...
I totally share your opinion Geross
May the references keep their "Patek size" i.e. not too big, thus still as elegant and refined, even for complicated pieces. Now, as their are people wanting bigger cases too, I imagine it is normal to propose 1 or 2 references in that trend (like the 590...
Another year, another "dreaming of steel" set of comments
Every year, this post ("what will patek introduce") causes all of us, myself included, to dream of a great steel piece. 5270 in steel? 5130 in steel? In fact, when we all first heard an annual calendar was finally coming in steel, I think everyone was so ...
I agree an Aquanaut could use a litlle bit of .....
diversity. Do not get me wrong I love the watch but I would prefer to see more options in this category. An experiment with the dial design or color for example, a leather strap? Best Regards. Edward
Totally agree, Edward
The limited edition military green dial with matching rubber strap in that color 5167 looks fantastic. Would be good to have more dial colors or designs.
Well, I totally understand this appeal and this wish to get steel versions but
I don't, personally In fact, they will bring such speculation (in the classical references like 5170, 5270, 5227 for instance, not the sportier like the 5960, Nautilus, Aquanaut etc...) that it should be kept for limited editions (thus not any client) and...
I agree, i dont really get that excited by the modern Pateks in steel
I had a 5565 and found it quite boring actually. The 5170J and 5170G first version both had silver dials, but different. The 5170G new version has the black dial, but I think in rose gold black dial would be fantastic (slightly different black dial, perha...
We'll see if they follow that combination
but that would be a way to bring something different from the silver/RG one. It looks so nice in the 5205R. There is also the grey color used in the 5960P Grey dial which could be interesting and not that frequent (to say the least). Cheers, Mark
Naturally, a basic automatic
two counter chronograph in two or three golds. Watch will use the excisting great Patek's automatic chronograph calibre. Best, Kari
You mean the 28-520, like in the 5975 175th?
Well, I'm not opposed to that but wonder how it will live next to the 5170. I prefered your other ideas :p Cheers, Mark
Horology vs. high horology
The issue is complicated. However, Patek does not have a basic automatic chronograph. I am speaking about something costing 50-60% of corresponding 5170. Best Kari
Would be nice as I like automatic
A 5975 with of course a different case would be a very new and appealing addition to me. Without any negative impact on the brand's image imho. Cheers, Mark
More than jusr "packaging"
I would love to see a perpetual calendar based on the 240Q with a small seconds over the moon phase. The lack of movement on the dial is the most common complaint I see on the 240Q. The 5170 shall really retire and give way to non pulsameter indexed chron...
We have the same approach for the 29-535 caliber
I think it is a true marvel in the traditional watchmaking area and far from being just a standard classical caliber. When you say "non-pulometer indexed", you mean that your prefer cleaner dial (like the black dial version launched in 2015)? As for the Q...
I think the 5170
should give way to an entirely new case and dial information scale. Perhaps the more common distance scale. I like the current 39.5mm case size but the market may want 41 or 42 for this type watch. I noticed the enthusiasm over the new VC platinum chronog...
I see
The Tachymeter scale is more popular on dials from what I can see in the watch market. I guess that for the little use of these scales it is really a matter of taste I think it is good to have also a bigger case offer because I noticed that many forumners...