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the uber-law of economics rules: Supply (rarity) vs. Demand
Of course rarity (i.e. supply, or 'short supply') is not alone what counts: it's the basic law of economics defining price that counts: DEMAND vs. supply (rarity). A watch can be ultra-rare, if nobody wants it, no demand, low price. Actually, I think that if watches are too rare, it's not good - because there is not enough written about them, not enough 'noise'/hype, and prices are low. You need a certain critical mass to get a hype and interest going. And then you need the demand side, demand higher than supply. It's the differential between the two that matters. If there are only 5 watches of one kind, but only 5 collectors want that watch, price is low. But if there are 5000 or even 10000 watches of one kind, but 10x so many collectors want it (see Daytona), price goes through the roof - although the watch is much less rare. Demand and condition are much more important than rarity, IMO.
That's why I think Rolex is doing so well - there are enough watches around for enough collectors to own them and talk about them in forums etc. That sparks interest of new collectors and you get a virtuous cycle. And then, one you have many interested, you get the special kick that out of the many, there is - by definition - only 1 in the world that is the one in best condition of all in the world, and prices go stratospheric. Rolex is hitting the sweet spot of enough critical mass, enough history, great quality.
Rolex Geneva Auction - my personal take
Well, it was certainly an experience. I was in Zurich on Sunday but travelled over to Geneva on Monday to see the auction. I was also tempted to pitch a few sneaky bids in for some watches....but alas, no Rolexes came my way. The room was full and there w...
Excellent analysis, Joe.
And somehow good news for me, as I am happy to see that the watches I am hunting, especially the Milgauss 1019, didn't leave the train station, yet... So, I will be able to take it! :) For the rest, well, the stars, the Daytonas, the SD Comex or not, well...
Spot on
Joe- Your analysis was EXACTLY the way I saw it. BC disappointed because the quality was weak. Your right, collectors paid top dollar (or CHF) for top quality and rarity. And your damn right about all the top dealers in the world being present. They were ...
One observation...
.....look at PuristS forums...Rolex vrs Patek The Rolex forum is full of many vintage enthusiasts. The Patek forum is dominated by mainly owners of relatively modern watches. Two different universes. Now, I think it would be a mistake to think that Rolex ...
One small reserve, though... Put the right vintage Pateks...
And you will see how they will score... A very nice Patek Chrono sector dial, stainless steel case will go over the sky. A very nice 3417, too, as well as the top of the top, the WT ( which still has the record of the highest bid, if I am not wrong ). At ...
As the right vintage Rolex...
The interesrt of these discussions is that it is not a matter of rarity, not only, it is a good lesson for those who think that rarity makes all... For the Watch collectors, and for the brands with their supposed limited editions. The condition, the compl...
Rarity
for sure does not make everything. I too really never cared for rarity alone. It is the complete package for sure. And your example of the European DSA is a good example. I too of rarely seen one up for sale lately. Thankfully I care more for the American...
the uber-law of economics rules: Supply (rarity) vs. Demand
Of course rarity (i.e. supply, or 'short supply') is not alone what counts: it's the basic law of economics defining price that counts: DEMAND vs. supply (rarity). A watch can be ultra-rare, if nobody wants it, no demand, low price. Actually, I think that...
i've spent 25 years ....
....as a professional economist, and that is the first time i have ever heard someone elaborate a "critical mass" idea. I like it.
uh oh.....
.....you know what they say about how no two economists can never agree.....
I disagree with that saying...
because I genuinely agree for example with all you have said when you started this thread: your observations are spot on in terms of Rolex vs. Patek...IMO that is. I also agree that your new white gold Patek is absolutely stunning, same as the 3483. I lov...
LoL....
...maybe its just US GDP where economists always disagree! Yep, those last two Patek purchases for me provided something quite different and actually special. A very different animal to Rolex. One thing I will add to your comment on critical mass.....that...
of course, that's why vintage watches ..
..same as vintage cars, some parts of arts, etc. are attractive investments! Because exactly as you point out: demand is fixed! if at all, it goes gradually down with each watch stolen, destroyed, lost over time. BUT: demand goes up with globalisation and...
The Italians
Didn't the Italian collectors have something to do with the sudden popularity ? (I read this somewhere) Dean
Italians have style. They always loved mechanical watches ....
And they were resisting against the Quartz Invasion. Well, Italians among others. Rolex, Patek, Omega, JLC, AP, they did a lot for mechanical watches. I would not say this is because of them, nor that it is a sudden popularity, either. Best, Nicolas
Very valid points
I agree with you. It is the demand supply differential which has the entire collectible universe on steroids (generously helped by world central banks). And you also make valid point if something is too rare it can work against it. However I would also sa...
Disagree respectfully!
There were plenty of the right vintage Pateks. Look at the two 2499 on sale? I am sorry but the 2499 is arguably the most important chronograph on this planet. Forget the other references from Patek. They struggled to sell. There was a fine (I regret not ...
Disagree on the 2499 as being the most important Chrono on the planet.
Some Longines 13 ZN are for me most important, horologically speaking. As well as some Minervas. What is Inside a Patek 2499? But a few Chronos only can beat the purity of a 130 Sector Dial. Or the Vacheron siblings from the same era... I still think that...
2499
Ok perhaps it was an exaggeration. Perhaps I should have stated ' the 2499 is perhaps the most sought after chronographs in the world'. Because sought after and important are not the same. There you make a right distinction. But you cannot argue that the ...
Collector
Nicolas- I think I understand what you mean. Your a collector of brands in general and don't differentiate between old and new? So your a Rolex collector in general because you love the brand and not only vintage. If yes- I fully understand your point. I ...
No, no I am absolutely not a Vintage Rolex Collector.
For example, I love the Rolex Tru Beat. Who gives a sxxt to this reference? Other examples: I am not so madly in love with the vintage Dayto that I never wanted to pay the price for it. I don't go for the most popular references: The Dayto, I am very happ...
My view
Nicolas- I don't quite follow your logic. I think you are a Rolex collector. A vintage Rolex collector at that. I just think that you don't follow the crowd so to speak. That is what makes you charming in my view and makes you interesting and why you have...
Two counter example: 5513 / 5517, and the 5513 3 / 6 / 9
You will never see, at least as far as I know, a Sub small crown doing better than these 5513... Even the average good 5508 or 6536 will never score a 5512 Gilt underline or 4 lines. While, in my book, these Sub small crown are more valuable. You see... ;...
Not true Nicolas
Your comparing apples to oranges. Thats like me saying a 275 GTB is more valuable than a 250 SWB. If you take the racing version 275 GTBC that won its class in Le Mans ofcourse it is more expensive. But on average (and that is the key here - ON AVERAGE) a...
Let's say that I didn't see a 6536 4 lines in my life.
And that I never saw a 4 lines 5508 reaching even half of this price... ;) Best, Nicolas
Learning curve
Nicolas thats the great thing about vintage watches. You always learn something new. Christies (unless you don't believe their research) just sold a super fine (except for the newer hands) exceptional 4L dial for nearly $90'ooo. They are probably pretty r...
Yes, but the question is to know if a 4 lines ( superlative chronometer )
originally came with this Watch which is from, I think, a previous prod year... I woiuld be curious to see pictures of the Watch, including the serial number, and the Inside case back showing the quartal and the year... Best, Nicolas.
here you are mon amì ...
yes it's a " 4 lines " of printing but obviously an OCC and not a SCOC .. so you guys are telling the same story ( it's just a little misunderstanding ) : ...
Change
Your right. That can easily change. The one constant we can be sure in life is change. Talking about change here is a bet I am willing to publicly make: I bet in 5 yrs time that the PN mania we are witnessing today will recede. It will still be important ...
Thank you for your thorough report and interesting thoughts...
... about both the Auction itself, and the course of collecting at present and near future. I read it with great interest, being so far of the Great Centers of collecting and auctioning, this is a world so far from my reach, and so captivating at same tim...
I agree on most ....
not too bad English after all ... LOL LOL LOL just a small tip : in my opinion Rolex is beginning to pursue Patek so close as many collectors have realised that some watches have an history behind while most don't !
Agree..,,
The Rolexes that are skyrocketing are those that have a history. That is what is resonating with uber wealthy collectors. That applies to omani watches, COMEXes, mil subs etc. let's not forget a milsub fetched almost 200k. What this does mean though is no...
I think this is an interesting point....
. ....rarity is a necessary but not sufficient factor. But..... what goes into making something stratospherically desirable for a collector is a mixture of factors, and yes, Marcello, I think this is one that is only just beginning to be reflected.......H...
I must say that I agree with you on the way you put it, my friend.
One factor, only one factor, but one factor. ;) Best, Nicolas
Great summary....so now the question of the day....
Does your 16660 COMEX have box and papers too? ;-D
666 with box and papers!!
Ask Marcello...we had an interesting private chat about this !!!
Great read, interesting thoghts
There were 2 other sales in Geneva about the same date. Putting the results of these sales together would give a better picture. I noted for example the prices of CHF 60K and 67K for Milgauss ref 1019, which is not that bad. No explorers of real quality i...
What about provenance
A fascinating read Baron. I think there is another question I would bring into play and that is of provenace. I have to admire Patek's support of their vintage collectors and watches. It would seem that a few years ago they took a deliberate decision to g...
slight ammendment
I tried to edit the post on re-reading, but missed the deadline. I wanted to change my last thought to something more general like -- -- I wonder if provenance across all the major brands won't become more prized over the next few years and the shift I've...
Indeed very important
PP does have one huge asset for collectors. Your point is extremely important and one that nobody had mentioned so far. I also value that in buying Patek. You rightfully point out that it is an important part of their DNA in supporting the collectors in v...
PP - DNA supporting collectors
PP does have one huge asset for collectors. Your point is extremely important and one that nobody had mentioned so far. I also value that in buying Patek. You rightfully point out that it is an important part of their DNA in supporting the collectors in v...
Ubik....
.....you make a number of very valid points. Look at the Rolex forum and the Patek forum. The first is domianted by vintage collectors whereas the latter is dominated by collectors of modern. Why has that happened? Well, I think a part of it is due to the...
A very well said general report...
I wasn't present at the auction, but I was following it on the web. Thank you for your analysis and keen description of the various groups of lots. I find that I am generally in complete agreement with your sentiments. Condition is incredibly important. R...