Baron - Mr Red
14613
i tend to agree with you Kari......
......however, I would add that the expansion of the EM markets has been in no way a small thing in the demand/supply (imbalance). I would also add that global central banks have been printing money for a number of years now...and with interest rates negative in many developed economies, it is inevitable that price bubbles will appear in specific areas. Now, bubbles can go on for a long time and many don't actually burst....it is not clear to me that the watch industry will generally face a bust. Your comments about capacity and quality are well-made...and i think I have also seen that process unfold many times with bad consequences. Will it happen again? Maybe...maybe it hits only specific sectors of the market....kings with no clothes maybe....or maybe it hits everyone. I think its hard to single out the watch industry as being specifically prone...i have seen it happen across a lot fo asset classes....money printing may make the outcome different this time....in past cycles, we just haven't had the same situation...makes me unsure of how it will unfold
BREAKING: Swatch Group's profit for 1st half of 2016 down by dramatic 60%, shares drop 12%
In an earnings call today, Swatch Group's President Nick Hayek had to announce really bad news: The watch conglomerate's profits drop by 60% for the first 6 months of 2016 (y-o-y), mainly attributable to dwindling sales in Hong Kong and Europe, particular...
Thank you for reporting.
For a longer time I have been expecting this and I'm afraid that the slide has just started. I have seen the same to happen again and again in other industries: Strengthening mart leading to increasing prices leading to increasing profits leading to incre...
+1
IMHO (non-exhaustive list): Managers have to be watch lovers who understand what they do and do it with enthusiasm and focus on a sustainable development. Reasonable prices (in Austria i.e. a Rolex DD40 Platinum costs K€ 22 more than the WG version...). G...
I will defend quite a different position Kari, just for the exercize
Quality: I'm not sure watches today are inferior in quality than the watches from the 1980's for instance. Steel quality is better, finishing is better in our movements than in former versions (324 from 315 or actual other movements compared the 27-460 et...
Like always Mark, I agree with you at least partly.
Being greedy in business is normal - it's the name of the game. In watches we reached a level where the prices just like the profit margins are totally insane. Now we will come to a situation that the manufacturers need to cope with that situation. As we ...
Same thoughts for me!
I must sell only three wristwatches ( and not the most expensives ) from my collection to finance the 50% of the price of my Porsche Panamera! It is quite strange and the jump is high from Bmw to Porsche, and gives me a lot of satisfaction, much more, if ...
Wow, didn't realize that a Patek can cost more than a Ferrari
for this working class, I think that pricing strategy is just insane. Yes, they will sell you that economists' smoke screen of supply vs demand but ultimately there has to be some kind of value justification. Of course if one is born with money, then by a...
Speaking about Rolex is another story...
In a Patek party T.Stern said to me: "it's hard to understand how Rolex can make so great watches with so affordable prices". I agree. Take as an example the new Daytona: how can it be so much cheaper than a AP chronograph, as an example, with an outsourc...
Haha Kari, you are a very lucky person
please enjoy your life, especially the Ferrari. I am contend with just occasional glimpse of the Ferraris or the Pateks in this life
Thanks.
Luck always plays a role but in the end, everything depends on how hard one works. I trust that even nearly every marriage could succeed if both try hard. And nearly everybody can drive on day a Ferrari and wear a Patek if those are the ultimate goals. St...
Even nearly every one of 10 000
boys from Nike sweatshops in Vietnam? Regards D P.S. Thing about marriage I agree completely
I'd suggest him to visit Seiko
They make great watches at even more affordable prices.
I have a different perspective
I had great experience with the Rolex service, i think your unsatisfactory service is a rare exception. Should not happen nevertheless and I agree the price and wait for the service is not optimal . But more importantly, there is a huge choice of mechanic...
i tend to agree with you Kari......
......however, I would add that the expansion of the EM markets has been in no way a small thing in the demand/supply (imbalance). I would also add that global central banks have been printing money for a number of years now...and with interest rates nega...
What you say is true Joe.
It's easy to see back and understand where we stand now. But the real challenge is to find the right solutions for the future. I'm sure some brands will collapse in a way or another, some will survive stronger than ever. I'm following the market developme...
one way or another....
.....the printing of money as a solution creates all manner of distortions.
not sure....
.....if you or I could print money legally, would we use that money to buy government bonds paying zero interest? I think I would use it to buy other stuff!
Great Anology
Thanks for sharing a great point of view. I equally feel time pieces have become way to expensive for mediocre pieces and waves of "limited" editions that are meaningless. I hope a correct will bring some sanity back for the true collectors and future one...
I saw that at the opening of the stock market this morning. Nothing really surprising. Time has come to eat black bread for the Swatch Group, Richemont...
Profit margins were just insane and unsustainable. In a not so far sector, Apple will know the same trajectory quickly. It is a salutary adjustment even if it will be to the detriment of employees as usual. Do not forget (and it is valid for everything) t...
It's going to be interesting how the industry will respond to saturated markets...
... the Asia boom has covered it for a while, but there are limits to luxury products, especially when they are long lasting and all important real innovation took place. Less is more, I believe this would be the way forward. Less new models, better care ...
It is happening and denial is over ....
Numbers sinking and becoming a buyers market. No silly prices of new watches and no new extra extra insanely prices watches . Evident from the fact that Piaget just launched a polo prices under 10k , Vacheron started a new steel watches line going for sub...
The main problem Ovi is: what is the right price for a watch as we all have different frame of reference?
As I already told here, we are privileged people and, sometimes, we do not keep our feet on the ground. Of course making a splendid watch requires time, investment, qualified people... but profit margins in this industry are too high and finally insane. I...
Ovi, what VC line are you referring to?
The new Overseas line came out with very high prices. I believe the steel chrono retails for nearly 30k. When I bought the previous version, which I still happen to like better, the watch retailed for about 16k which seemed fair. Tony
The VC reference 4500s in stainless steel Quai de I'lle ...
Entry level of 14k usd...
Only 10 or 15 years ago
That same $14k would have bought an 18k gold piece from VC. Now, they remove the gold rotor (only a few grams) from the same movement in the Overseas to make an entry level piece. It's unclear how much of these price changes are due to high costs vs. pric...
Maybe a soft landing?
"Profits down" beats the heck out of "losses." At this stage, it's a reality check but not a catastrophe.
"Soft landing" is a mirage created by economists. As a Financial Strategist, you can trust me there is no "soft landing" (China, stock markets, company profits...).
We have an adage in Finance about stock markets: "you take stairs when they increase and the elevator when they collapse" Regarding watch industry, I think companies are at a corner today after 15 years of growth. Best wishes Alkiro
What I have never understood is the need for permanent growth
It\'s idiotic. A phantom. Nothing can grow forever.
Perfectly true. There is a universal law for everything (companies, products, life...) which follows this behaviour: start, growth, maturity and, finally, decline
It is just a question of time period but everything is subject to this law. Best wishes Alkiro
Finally a good news
The fact that a customer has the power to afford it, it doesn't mean that he's a cow to milk at all. They thought it would have been endless, selling goods like any other form of investment, but doing so they've attracted speculators and not created watch...
I watched The Big Short on the plane last night
and it made me think about the luxury watch secondary market. Bit of a reach I know. The truly few great unique Pateks and Rolexes are the AAA that are used to prop up a lot in the range of middling stuff out there. I do feel sorry for rank file employees...
Richemont didn't do quite as bad,
but it is also down in profits. Richemont is simultaneously laying off workers; cutting production; and buying back unsold stock from its ADs.
I think this is part of the difference: SG does NOT lay off people...
as basically a family business they can afford that. Magnus
Personally, I think the watch industry is in serious trouble
Things haven't unraveled yet IMO and they will in due time. It just amazes me what the retail price is on watches these days, especially pieces from the Independents. Talk about sky high and as what Greenspan said "irrational exuberance" about the financi...
Thorstein Veblen "upended" the basic demand/supply curve
He wrote about a higher demand for luxury goods as prices rise. Why? It shows the others in the ultra-high wealth group that you've got money to burn. Who can justify a R. Mille tourbillon ratrappante at over $1.1MM? Watch industry, including independents...
Thorstein Veblen upended the supply/demand curve in the 1800s
He wrote about a higher demand for luxury goods as prices rise. Why? It shows the others in the ultra-high wealth group that you've got money to burn. Who can justify a R. Mille tourbillon ratrappante at over $1.1MM? Watch industry, including independents...
It is very interesting the near-unanimity in response...
...here at the watch enthusiasts' playground. All of us loves watches, but everyone, even (especially?) the heavy-hitters, express almost a sense of schadenfreude at the industry's comeuppance thus far. We couldn't have what we love without the industry, ...
Exactly
I have being saying this for a while, but got flamed in another forum. Like your three points. I have criticized the ever increasing prices, horrible service time, and poor quality (of my Patek). What I got in return was I don\'t know watches, and the wor...
trend away from mechanical watches
Its not just the economy that is in play here. Younger folks are clearly not seeing the fascination with watches and all segments are trending towards "smart" watches of some type. Fitbit is very popular here and surprisingly very small for everyone yet p...
I was waiting for someone to touch the issue of smart watches. I am most eager...
to learn more details as SG will publish them next week. In particular, I would like to see a breakdown of brands, but certainly of market levels, to see where they get hurt most. This then would give indications as the impact of smart devices. Thanks, Ma...
Sloppy, lazy and greedy
is how I'd describe the industry. This has happened across all watch brands, regardless. They have had it easy until now, people have been buying their products despite the price rises and poor support. Let's hope they'll see where they have been going wr...
Well I never cared for the consolidation.
I think the individual companies and their products begin to lose some character. JerryW
Aaah, here we go...
With some veeeeery few exceptions, the collections from the past let's say 3 or 4 years aren't showing anything exceptional. Brands are playing the safe ( and too often boring ) card. Just a different color for the dial, a different metal for the case and...
++++1!
Not overly priced, not overly big size, not overly show-off purpose...... Very, watch lovers oriented watches...... Brands now have totally forgotten about us! Sad, sad, sad.....
I think prices really started to go nuts in 2006-2008.
More than one increase, and big increases, in a year.
Yes, though vintage watches are cool in their own right too.
But they now offer tremendous value compared to new.
What PawZaw probably means is ...
.. the greedy boutiques saw an increase in rich Chinese tourists buying expensive watches as if they were chocolates. Thus higher demand and easier selling without having to negociate about the pprice ;-) ... makes prices easily go up
The purchasing behavior of Chinese tourists is very different
They go to the boutiques with a list in mind, they ask for the model and the price and they buy / not buy. No room for experience, or conversation about savoir-faire, etc. The problem was luxury brands got used to this type of behaviour, and they have got...
They're not !
I've been seeing hard times for over ten years now ... but you have to get used to it ;-)
Went to the local Rolex dealer this weekend ...
Same treatment as 10 years ago ... all i ever bought in those 10 years was a Longines for my wife ... untill now, we finally bought her dreamwatch ;-) . Don't think we would have bought it there if we hadn't felt welcome once in those ten years .. i guess...
Yes he is !
A friend of me bought over ten new Rolex with him in one year He also is a lover of vintage cars and his son is a carfreak as well. Filip
He he... When you go to visit him again, ask him to show you...
The latest Longines Railroad watch. It is a great one! Best, Nicolas
Aaaaarghhh ...
I asked him last saturday but with all the fuzz and 20 Rolex watches on the table he forgot ..... and me too :-( ... . Tomorrow i'm in Gent though Fifi
I can go diving ..
... with an Airking as well ... or better with that latest blue/black bezelled Sub ? Bim
Even in the early days of limited editions they were just variations of the same base watch.
Sure some were cool looking but it was the exact movement as the previous 20 limited editions.
historically consolidation is what saved independent brands, and even the high horology industry in general, during times of extreme crisis...
ironically Swatch Group and Nicolas Hayek can arguably said to have saved the high horology Swiss watch industry through consolidation... but in general, and especially during "good times" I tend to agree with you.
On business, cyclical business, there are always up and down.
You make tons of money in the good years to prepare for the bad years. That's how business runs. Sorry for this year, but you had great years for a long time, so what's the big deal?
At last Ken, some good sense....
This article from Magnus is important news, but the way people behave when reading this kind of news (and it is the same in politics or in the stockmarket for instance) is lacking of perspective. Yes prices are very high and I won't deny that of course. B...
The independents are going to be the hardest hit
I am quite concerned that the state of the market will make it quite difficult for some of the Independents to stay viable. It will be a pity to see any of them disappear as they have all elevated watchmaking to an art form and put their selves into their...
I'm not so sure
Independents will be hit so hard-at least those that have excelled in something. Isn't the old addage that if you can't be number 1, find something to be number 1 at? So you've got the independents who speacialize in skeletonization, those who do moonphas...
You nailed it, Mark.
Prices kept going up because people kept buying. But what the brands - such as watch brands which have been in business for centuries - had forgot was that those "new" purchasing power would not stay long. Not that they spent too much, but they are "trave...
Core vs. fleeting
This is actually something I would like (but don\'t think ever will) see: the split in revenue between \'core and repeat collectors\' vs. fleeting customers. Also this figure now vs. the past. Although totally different products, the stats (revenue) for a...
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