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Horological Meandering

Will Birkin bags become the Birkin bags of the 21st century?

 

This is going to be fun; it's always great to see "1 of __" on a post from Bernard.

It's not clear to me that the Birkin bag will hold its status for decades, let alone a century. I suspect that certain very early examples may always be highly collectible, but the winds of fashion will blow in many directions before the century ends. An item that is widely known to be desirable but that still can be acquired simply by paying a lot of money and waiting for a while is not necessarily a top candidate for "iconic" status. Of course, it's a highly-effective status symbol as it is highly recognizable and everyone knows what it costs, but that is not the same thing as saying it has a future as a symbol of something more enduring.

Without making a specific prediction, I think we can define the conditions required for an object to take on such a great cultural value. Of course we have to look for items that will be highly desirable in the future. However, that is not enough: they will have to be items that originally could not be obtained by merely paying large amounts of money. I think that means one of two conditions will have to exist: either they could be purchased only on the basis of a relationship or they were not known to be desirable and therefore were acquired only by individuals of unusual vision. As an example of the first condition, I would propose the Ferrari Enzo: many people want and could pay for them, but my understanding is that the company has to know and like you before they will put you on "the list." For the second condition, consider the Rolex Daytona at the time (still within the memories of some of us) when nearly nobody wanted them.

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