5980
2862
All very good points
I happen to also believe there exists a collector vs speculator distinction among PP and Rolex, on the one hand, and marques like ALS on the other. Passionate and / or knowledgeable collectors will generally perceive value of a given reference irrespective of ateliers, notwithstanding personal preferences for one brand or another. In other words, I think we can safely presume collectors ascribe value to a watch based on its merits.
Speculators on the other hand, in my experience, often perceive present value based on his/her self-assessment of future value. Of course the more knowledgeable speculator will include a piece's technical, historical, etc merits in his/her calculus, all with the goal of developing a "smart" view of future potential value. However, in estimating future value that same speculator also must use the past price evolution of other, similar pieces as a guide. "Comps" in my old life.
In this way, the virtuous circle manifests: Price appreciation of past watches influences money chasing current watches for sale. The number of past successful "investments" in PP and Rolex far exceeds that of every other marque. With this as a guide, new money / speculators disproportionately chase PP or Rolex for future price appreciation potential.
We might conclude that demand from the true collector would equalize this affect, but I would argue the amount of speculator money vs collector money chasing the market is disproportionate. Speculation far exceeds collection. Watches are perceived as an "investment" / means to profitably flip by many and therefore the bulk of money flows will remain squarely focused on proven past winners such as PP and Rolex. This should evolve (or devolve) with time, but time measured in years or decades.
Just my two cents. OK, maybe three 😉
Tourbillon Pour le Mérite
I know it is taboo to discuss values on this forum, but as a serious lover and collector of ALS, I could not help notice the results of the latest Philips auction. Considering the extortionate price paid for the Paul Newman Daytona, I thought the Tourbill...
Clarification
Langeholic, Thought provoking question. Have fun! I want to be clear about PuristSPro policy. We don't want to be the "zealot police". There is always a "value" placed on our life decisions and denying that is abnormal. But we don't want to become focused...
"Auction prices are only a measure of the amount of lust vs. size of their wallet between the two last bidders. Auctions are also subject to market manipulations"...
Melvyn aptly captured my sentiments. Auctions are like movies that purport to be "based on a true story": The ending interests me because of its entertainment value, but I would never draw any firm, "real world" conclusions from watching the show. I glean...
A very interesting thread
In regards to defending their prices, the Lange Beijing boutique told me that the new directive from Germany is that the boutique can no longer offer discounts. Anyone know whether the same is true at other boutiques?
Not sure when this directive was introduced, but
I negotiated a fairly decent discount on a rare timepiece in September through a boutique that shall remain unnamed.
I've been told from an AD,
Boutiques can give up to 15% (max. 20%, which should be confirmed). AD - up to 30%. My negotiations with different ALS sellers approved these numbers... WBR Serge
Thanks for that
I do wonder whether the salesperson was "mistaken". Considering I bought from them before (and was given a decent discount) and was not exactly happy that the boutique would not give me a discount, it was an interesting negotiating tactic
Surprised too by the result
I saw this one in the catalogue but I did not read the condition report. Well, if you look through the catalogues from the big houses over the last 3-4 seasons, you will see that ALS pieces have not been as prominently placed as PP or Rolex and do not get...
Quite saddened
I won't sugarcoat my frustration upon seeing the hammer land where it did.. I feel no matter the efforts put into championing our favourite brand, it seems more value is placed on an obscure red line (or 2) on a dial than true craftsmanship. Will this res...
A bubble stimulated by Rolex and PP
I suppose the whole auction story when a steel PP chronograph goes for €10 mil+, or some Rolex watches go for €5 mil+ is a clever marketing stunt. Let me explain, a good marketing campaign (magazines, web, parties) costs A Lot Of Money and requires A Lot ...
Totally agree Alex
Rolex has always been a marketing machine whilst PP are more subtle and incredibly impactful with their history of museum purchases. They both are very effective getting their names mentioned for free by the media in all formats.
Not Rolex, but Phillips
Aurel, Paul, Alex, Arthur etc made phantastic results. I've enjoyed to see, what was done )) WBR Serge
In my opinion, the success of Patek and Rolex at auctions has a lot to do with successful marketing.
I would actually not be comfortable with ALS heading in that direction. The day Lange turns to celebrity endorsements would probably be the day I turn my back on the brand. In my opinion, Lange is doing things right: building up a brand through the provis...
Completely agree with you.
These things take time and as you mentioned both Rolex and PP benefit from marketing and have their continuous uninterrupted history on their side.
I totally agree
I would hate to see a rap artist customise his Turbograph with diamonds and rubies 😀 I too prefer ALS not to dilute the brand or over appeal to the mass market. What drew me to the brand was its exceptional craftsmanship and limited numbers. My concern is...
I think our fellow Purists got it right:
Auction performance is determined more by speculators than collectors, hence the incredible results. I can understand why the Duality performed so well, though I cannot comprehend the attraction of the PNM Daytona. If you ask me, the real winner was the o...
You wrote, "I would hate to see a rap artist customise his Turbograph" -- I wonder what you think of this...
... see pic below, and check out this old thread . ...
Oh my 😳
A real shame to alter such a beautiful timepiece, however I can appreciate the craftsmanship. It's abit much, but could be a lot more blingy.
I feel this is an incredible waste.
While the modifications bears artistic merit (it is definitely way better executed than a diamond-crusted monstrosity), it destroyed a historical piece of Lange, and to what end? A wasteful exercise smacking of vanity, what a shame.
Well said!
I can't judge someone for wanting a unique piece, but it is a shame to alter such a beautiful work of art..
"auction houses do not do a good job of educating their clients"
As part of the Phillips watch team based in Geneva all I can say is that we do our best to fully explain, in the catalogue, the reason why the watch is relevant/important/rare etc.. however it is up to the potential client to do his/her homework and educa...
Sorry Alex, I must strongly disagree!
The information that auction houses provide on any particular lot is no doubt essential, but the bare minimum expected for the fee expected. I personally feel it is the responsibility of all in the industry to raise awareness and educate, especially promi...
you can't compare an auction house with a brand. PP is a brand and the
amazing exhibition they did in NY last summer was very well made of to create even greater awareness and brand identity and this is the role of a brand not an auction house. an auction house will represent the state of the market at a certain time and bra...
Totally agree!
My intention wasn't to compare a manufacturer to an auction house, I meant that more companies, whatever their role in the horological world should take a leaf out of Patek's book. Don't get me wrong, we are all fully aware that Patek aren't doing this fo...
Let's agree to....agree :-) actually it's
something I've been thinking of doing, some kind of masterclas etc.. and something we've been doing on the Phillips Watches blog with in depth article but need to get more readership😳
Sometimes auction houses over educate and overstep their bounds...
Have you noticed a lot of auction house catalogues have little editorials that are filled with opinions that the watch will be highly coveted in the future? Auction houses are supposed to present facts. I find that many auction houses are now getting into...
Phillips Bacs & Russo underestimated the New York demand for this RG Tourbillon PLM or it was a gentleman's handshake
If you look at the 50 lots in the catalogue of mostly vintage watches, this was the only offering from ALS and it was fairly young from 1994. I think the PP minute repeater, Dufour Duality and a Rolex YG all diamonds Cosmograph were the only other lots yo...
Buyer Here
Hi, I ended up winning this one. When I previewed the pieces the morning of the sale, all the specialists said there was great interest in this one and it popped up on a few well-followed Instagram accounts as a favorite. I set my sights on four or five p...
Congratulations! It’s a special piece.
thanks for setting the record straight. I stayed up to see the WS game and thank god it’s over and I get to reply before going to bed.
Congratulations!!
It's always nice to hear the story from the actual buyer, thank you for sharing. You've picked up a wonderful timepiece at a great price, sincere congratulations!! I'm astounded that only two people bid for it, but I guess true connoisseurs are a rare bre...
It came with a cert from ALS....
....certifying its authenticity, dated July/2017. Also, I am quite friendly with Alkis who does the servicing for ALS in NYC, and we discussed this piece before the sale, as he was in the room, and he said it all checks out. I'm going to stop by his place...
That's good enough
I guess your main priority was to know it is totally authentic and a certificate from ALS is as good as it is going to get. The only other consideration is if the watch was stolen, but I guess ALS would have been informed and I'm guessing Philips must do ...
Heartiest congratulations!
Please spare us the agony and post lots of wrist-shots when it is finally in your hands. What a masterpiece from Lange!
There are some pieces which perform quite well. Langematik Anniversary, for instance, or 1815 Moonphase Emil Lange.
On moderns, Lange and almost all the brands have a lot of work to do... Avoid so called limited editions, for example, and wonderful new watches... Best, Nicolas
Have to disagree
You can also get modern, limited Langes that do well in the after market years later. The problem is: which one will do well later? The answer is: it is a gamble, as you will know.
True, I think because it was "limited" to 500(!!!) pieces...
Lange's total annual production of ALL models was about 5,000 watches annually, and production of the Langematik Anniversary was a full 1/10 of that amount. That's astoundingly high! The market reacted accordingly for the (many) years it took to absorb th...
The blue-dial Lange watches are now part of the current collection
And according to Lange customer service they will be produced in the foreseeable future and there are no current plans to discontinue them.
Interesting. If true, that'd be a change...
... from the announcement that the blue-dial models must be ordered by early 2018, after which time they'll no longer be available.
I emailed Lange and asked when the watches had to be ordered by.
Was told the blue-dials are not limited, part of the current collection, and while they cannot say how long they will be made, their discontinuation is not scheduled for the near future.
I just asked at a Lange boutique yesterday...
... and was told that the blue-dial models are supposed to be available "only for a short time" but that no specific end date for ordering was set. So we'll see if they can still be ordered in a year or two. Maybe Lange has a small batch of new blue dials...
Thanks for that
Time will reveal all Personally, I am hoping that the blue dials are still available in a few years. That is when I plan to purchase a Lange 1.
Oh yes, I would definitely love to get my hands on a Langematik Anniversary.
It's a truly magnificent anniversary piece that spoke to collectors. Limited editions must be rarely issued for it to the intent to be effective.
Its a shame no doubt
But this piece got little to no coverage at all. Also, the brand is fairly unknown outside a niche group within the watch collecting community, which is in itself a small group. Personally, i think the current trend of insane prices is just a bubble and w...
I have to agree with you
Philips buried it, however they did the same to some other timepieces and they performed fairly well. I don't fully agree ALS is a niche brand, it is all relative. It is niche relative to Rolex, but not so niche relative to VC or RM for example. When I pu...
This dark dialed RG PLM is quite rare but what is wrong with $ 150k ?
For the first owner it is still a huge difference to the purchase price. Best Moritz
That is a fair point
It is relative though, this model symbolises the birth of ALS, it is an important and fairly rare timepiece from what is clearly a very innovative and disruptive brand. It is as important as the 1518 was for PP and some collectors understand this, so to s...
I think it is based on past values
The rose gold black dial has sold between $175-250k in prior years and one would hope it would hold value. After all, there were only 150 made and other than the black dial WG piece unique, the rarest version is this one (15 made) So when basically the ra...
You've hit the nail on the head
We are not in a recession, infact valuations of most asset classes are fairly stretched and liquidity is plentiful. This auction is highly coveted, the timepiece is rare enough to draw interest, there are strong price comparable's in auction archives. One...
All very good points
I happen to also believe there exists a collector vs speculator distinction among PP and Rolex, on the one hand, and marques like ALS on the other. Passionate and / or knowledgeable collectors will generally perceive value of a given reference irrespectiv...
I think you've made an excellent argument.
Speculators are looking for track record pieces. Lange has a very short track record. And Lange has done nothing to boost second hand prices. The Sterns created the auction market for Patek to build it's museum.
Great analysis
You make excellent points, indeed speculators outweigh collectors. That is true of most markets. Even if one is to start a collection of passion, the sums involved deter one to divert too much from Patek or Rolex for fear of steep depreciation. No one wan...
Very interesting and informative post!
Regarding Langematik Anniversary I got mine back in 2002, acquired from a friend in Europe for a “paltry” sum of around 18k; I had kept it since then, regularly worn, and only recently got it serviced about 2 years ago! If I were to sell it right now, I w...
Seems like you bought well, it also really depends on the model and price point with ALS
I recently valued my ALS collection for insurance and curiosity purposes, an exercise I've never properly conducted. I'm a savvy buyer, let's just say I never pay retail. Despite generally owning rare and some iconic timepieces, the secondary market valua...
This has sparked great discussion and debate!
I honestly am not sure how I feel about this. I believe the watch was sold without papers and we all know the adverse affect that has on value. The comparative obscurity of Lange vs Rolex and Patek really doesn't bother me. Having a brand that isn't insta...
Bought that PLM
Hi, I won this piece and I too was baffled that there were only two bids on this piece! There was considerable interest on this piece prior to the sale, which makes it all the more confusing. Though, I couldn't be happier to have won it at well below what...
Congratulations on winning this piece..
With regards to market prices of ALS, pateks etc.. a wise speculator once told me : “perception is reality”..
Para-7, thank you for sharing your experience!
Undoubtedly, you have an awesome piece! It is good to hear that Lange folks are interested in the secondary and tertiary market values of their pieces. I trust that they will take heed and act accordingly. Welcome to the brand! Your first Lange is indeed ...
That was really informative.
Thank you for sharing, and congratulations again on the acquisition of such a fine watch of undoubted horological significance.
Congratulations, Para-7.
You obtained a true historic piece, and were lucky enough that only you and one other knew that. I get the feeling that Herr Schmid doesn't really care about the prices of watches once they are sold. And a few other things I'll refrain from. But your watc...
Thanks!
I couldn't be happier with my PLM - just checks all the boxes for me. We both get that feeling about secondary prices, and I think we're correct. I almost want to pry out what you're refraining from mentioning!
Original Lange Datograph
First of all congrats to the buyer who purchased that wonderful Pour le Merite. Please wear it only in the best of health. I was intrigued by Lange and understood that they made some of the finest watches in the world. Years ago, I purchased new, the orig...
I faced the same issue Mark
I've never considered selling my timepieces until recently when I upgraded my collection and concluded that I needed to dispose of my more modest complications. It kills me to part with my rose gold datograph, which has been kept in an immaculate conditio...
Phillips Geneva Auction
I eagerly watched this over the weekend much closer than usual to compare ALS performance to other brands. It was not surprising to see Patek and Rolex perform well, but Omega had a decent night too! Two ALS lots in particular stood out, Lot 161 a 704.025...
Please take a closet look at 704.025!!
It was not regular model, but Nr. 145/150 with customized, made upon client request blued hands, what makes the watch unique... I've made the photo at GWA6 preview in London. WBR Serge ...
I was the under-bidder on this one.
I think that Phillips is not doing a good job marketing these pieces. They are putting them in sales with big Rolexes and Pateks, expecting those collectors to scoop one of these up as a consolation prize when they miss out on a piece 10x the price. It's ...
Sorry, but I should defend Phillips (if it needs :)
On this preview Alex, Paul and other were friendly and ready to explain all watches. I've asked about Lange and was told about it. But mostly people were only about PND and just a few - Dualty... It's clients request to talk about Rolex and PP... WBR Serg...
Previews
Are just that previews. They could, I don't know, make a themed sale around ALS or indys. I may have watched almost all of Aurel and Co's interviews leading up to the NY and Geneva auctions and didn't see a single mention of ALS or independents. There's m...
Thanks Para-7 :-) we all try to defend the brands we love and I have a very weak spot for the
Indies (and Lange) and little by little by having more and more of them in sales we can make the larger public more aware of them and the great job they do, which will create greater demand and higher prices in the long run.
Absolutely
Absolument, Alex! Indies will be the next frontier, slowly but surely, and I am excited to see this trend start to pick up. As we've discussed, it's always a bit heart-wrenching to see some of these great pieces trade for low sums.
these low(er) prices are also a good thing as they
enable collectors with more limited means to access pieces from independents (which habitually come with a really high price tag)